What a $15,000 electric SUV says about US-China car rivalry

But the Toyota bZ3X is real, and it is actually on sale starting at that price. There is a catch: To buy one, you have to be in China.

Auto executives once dreamed of a world car that could be designed once and sold everywhere. That world has fractured, and nowhere more so than in the two biggest markets, China and the U.S., which together account for nearly half of global vehicle sales.

“Decades ago, it was very easy to develop to produce one standard and to provide it globally," said Volkswagen’s chief executive, Oliver Blume. “Today, it’s impossible because the expectations of the customers are different. The ecosystems are different, the regulations are different."

“There is no such thing as a world car anymore," said Jürgen Reers, global lead for the automotive business at Accenture.

For an American used to a $50,000 gasoline-powered SUV as the standard family choice, the Chinese market is hardly recognizable.

A majority of new vehicles sold in China are either fully electric or plug-in hybrids, and a look around the recent auto show in Shanghai showed that local makers have mostly stopped introducing new gasoline-powered models. In the U.S., by contrast, the traditional combustion engine still powers about eight in 10 new vehicles.

Most Chinese buyers these days are buying a local brand. Some, such as BYD, have begun to gain international recognition, but the malls are filled with dealers that offer brands virtually unknown abroad—Zeekr, Lynk & Co, Aion, Aito and many more.

The price difference is overwhelming. Chinese car buyers no longer need to debate whether an EV can be made affordable, not when a decent starter model costs $10,000 and a luxury seven-seater with reclining massage chairs can be had for $50,000. Because of customer demand, even the low-end models come with advanced driver-assistance software.

Compared with four years ago, “The prices of our competitors have fallen dramatically," said Tetsuya Miyahara, a Honda Motor executive in China.

Tesla is better-positioned than other American automakers to compete in China, since its models have always been all-electric and it makes the vehicles in Shanghai with Chinese batteries.

Yet it has fallen behind in another aspect that makes China special: speed of development. Tesla has two models widely available—Model 3 and Model Y—and both have been on the market for years. China’s BYD has about 25 models, according to the market-analysis firm Inovev, and is constantly introducing more.

Tesla’s sales in China in the first quarter were slightly up at around 135,000, but its market share has plateaued at around 3%.

For a global company such as Toyota to compete in China, it needs a development process different from the one that serves American consumers with gasoline-powered RAV4 SUVs and Tacoma trucks.

Toyota said its bZ3X—the recently introduced model that starts at $15,000—was designed in China by the company’s engineers in the country, who worked with a local joint-venture partner. It is made in Guangzhou with Chinese batteries and driver-assistance software from Momenta, a Chinese leader in that field.

“This couldn’t happen without a Chinese supply chain," said Masahiko Maeda, head of Toyota’s Asia business. “Unless you localize, it’s out of the question."

A Toyota spokesman said the company received 15,000 orders on the first day the bZ3X went on sale in China in March, more than expected. Many buyers are choosing to spend a few thousand dollars extra to get more advanced driver-assistance functions, he said.

Maeda said the U.S. has a “costly supply chain," meaning Toyota’s U.S. showrooms won’t be selling a $15,000 electric SUV soon. The closest equivalent, a slightly longer model called the bZ4X, starts at around $40,000 in the U.S.

People in the industry say that thanks to China’s supply chain, it is still possible to make money on a $15,000 vehicle. BYD, the leader in that price range, said its first-quarter profit doubled to more than $1 billion.

Like other foreign automakers, Toyota needed a jolt in its China business after local rivals surged in recent years. Still, it retains a market share near 10%.

Toyota officials said the market remained important. China accounts for nearly one in five Toyota and Lexus vehicles sold worldwide, and Toyota is building a new, wholly owned Lexus factory in Shanghai that is scheduled to open in 2027.

The American and Chinese car markets are likely to diverge further with the two countries’ deepening trade conflict. President Joe Biden’s administration hit Chinese EVs with a 100% tariff, all but ruling out imports into America. President Trump has made it clear he doesn’t want more car imports.

The Detroit three automakers—General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis’s U.S. arm—are settling into niches in China. U.S. brands collectively had a 5.7% market share in China in the first quarter of this year, according to the China Passenger Car Association, down from 8.5% three years ago.

Almost all of the U.S.-branded vehicles sold in China are Chinese-made, taking advantage of the country’s supply chain. Imports from the U.S. are minuscule as a proportion of the total market.