The five big budget themes before Nirmala Sitharaman

Accordingly, allocations for existing schemes for these sections of the society are likely to see an enhancement while new schemes may be announced, two persons privy to discussions in the government said.

“Schemes meant for these sections of the society will get emphasis in the budget. For example, education and skill development will get special attention, addressing the aspirations of the youth," one of the two people said.

The Centre allocated over ₹1.12 trillion for the two departments handling school education and literacy and higher education in 2023-24. The welfare of women will also be a key pillar of Sitharaman’s budget speech on 1 February given Modi’s vision of women-led development. In the recently held assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, women voters were a focal point and both Congress and BJP, which won the state poll, had offered schemes for women.

For the ministry of tribal development, which implements schemes for the welfare of tribals, the allocation was raised sharply in 2023-24. “That trend is set to continue in 2024-25 as well," said the person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. In the 2023-24 budget, the allocation for the ministry saw an increase of nearly 71%, a major part of which went for the Eklavya Model Residential Schools (EMRS) programme that provides free education to children from scheduled tribes from classes six to eleven in a residential set-up. Indicating the government’s emphasis on tribals, the government’s drive to ensure welfare programmes reach all eligible persons who have not yet been covered—the Vikasit Bharat Sankalp Yatra, was flagged off at Khunti, a village in Jharkhand with substantial tribal population, on 15 November by Modi, the person cited above said.

Farmers are expected to benefit from a likely 33% increase in the social transfer under the PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi. Under the scheme, ₹6,000 is transferred every year to small and marginal farmers. In 2023-24, the Centre allocated ₹60,000 crore for this scheme, which will go up commensurately in 2024-25, said a second person, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Exact budgetary allocations for different ministries for the next fiscal are currently being worked out. While the government gets an early sense of the expenditure pattern for the current year, the revenue receipt trends are known as the fiscal year draws to a close.

An email sent to a finance ministry spokesperson seeking comment on Wednesday remained unanswered.

Experts pointed out that the strategy of addressing the needs of the vulnerable sections of the society through the budget while separately undertaking reforms and making it easier for doing business are likely to help the ruling coalition connect with not only the masses but also with the well-off while pursuing development goals. “The government is already focused on the aspect of inclusiveness in politics. The Modi government has transited to class politics. Indian politics, which has traditionally been seen as caste-centric has now become class-centric, which is a fundamental shift in Indian politics. The poor, farmers, youth and women have become a class for the ruling administration and if you focus on these segments, caste gets to the margins. It has been happening through the immaculateness of the service delivery system which eliminated middlemen," said A.K. Verma, the director of the Centre for Study of Society and Politics, an independent think tank in Kanpur. The majority of the society constituted by these four segments and the entire budgetary focus has to be and will probably be designed in such a way that it is seen to be benefiting the whole country, explained Verma.