Ola Electric’s Q4 results will be Bhavish Aggarwal’s chance to set the record straight

Investors saw the company with excitement as legacy two-wheeler makers remained cautious about jumping into the electric vehicle market. When Ola Electric listed in August 2024, its share price doubled within a fortnight.

For the Bengaluru-based startup, it did not seem like its fortunes could go awry, until they did.

Cut to May 2025 and Aggarwal, Ola Electric’s founder and chief executive, is busy putting out fires. The company’s share price has plunged more than 30% since listing on 9 August 2024 and the company has dropped to third in the e-scooter pecking order with legacy players TVS Motor Co. Ltd and Bajaj Auto Ltd surging ahead.

Also read | What went wrong for Ola Electric after its $4 billion IPO?

To make matters worse, Ola Electric is under scrutiny by the ministry of heavy industries, the ministry of road transport and highways, the Central Consumer Protection Authority, and the Securities and Exchange Board of India for various issues, including a disruption in its vehicle registration operations, lack of trade certificates, and consumer complaints over servicing of its scooters.

So when Aggarwal leads the quarterly management call on 29 May post the announcement of the company’s fourth-quarter and 2024-25 results, he can expect some tough questions from analysts and investors.

Aggarwal is expected to throw light on the demand for its recently launched e-motorcycle RoadsterX, the installation of Ola’s own lithium-ion batteries, called Ola Cells, in its scooters, and its cost-reduction programme.

The management will also have the chance to clear the air on the regulatory scrutiny the company faces, which has weighed on investor sentiments this year. Ola Electric’s share price has fallen by nearly 40% this year.

Mint puts together five key factors to watch out for when Ola Electric declares its results on 29 May.

Also read | Can Ather, India’s Tesla for two-wheelers, beat Ola Electric on the markets?

Revenue

Ola Electric’s Q4 revenue is expected to decline 42% to ₹915 crore from ₹1,598 crore in the corresponding year-ago period, according to Bloomberg’s estimate based on projections by two analysts.

The company’s sales growth slowed significantly in the previous financial year. Ola Electric sold 344,009 e-scooters in 2024-25, a tepid 4.5% rise in sales when compared with the nearly 100% jump to 330,000 units in 2023-24. 

In exchange filings, Ola Electric has insisted that it recognises revenue from vehicles sold only after those vehicles are registered with transport authorities. For February, for instance, the company claimed that it had sold over 25,000 vehicles but could only register around 8,600 vehicles due to issues with its two registration agencies.

As per Ola Electric’s disclosures, its backlog of vehicles was to be fully cleared in April, which means the company will not be able to recognise revenue from all the vehicles sold between January and March, the final quarter of 2024-25.

Ola Electric has recognised revenue only for 56,642 units for the financial fourth quarter, down from 120,132 registered units for the year-ago January-March quarter.

Also read | Ola Electric’s sales collapse in a booming electric two-wheeler market

Profitability
Ola Electric’s net loss for the January-March quarter is expected to be ₹408 crore, similar to the ₹416 crore loss recorded in the same year-ago period, as per Bloomberg’s estimate.

Rating agency Icra estimates Ola Electric’s FY25 loss to widen to ₹1,900-2,000 crore from ₹1,600 crore in FY24.

Investors and analysts will be watching for the company’s profitability target. 

In an earnings call on 7 February after announcing Ola Electric’s third-quarter results, Aggarwal had said the company has to reach 50,000 units in monthly sales to turn profitable. 

The company’s latest sales figures are far off that target. Ola Electric’s deliveries in April dropped to 19,709 vehicles from 34,160 units during the same month last year, according to data from the government’s Vahan portal.

Commentary on margins will also be a key factor to watch.

Battery plans

As per Ola Electric’s stated plans, its cell gigafactory for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries should have reached 6.4 GWh capacity by the end of April. However, its current capacity is at 1.4 GWh, suggesting significant delays in scaling up operations at the factory.

Ola Electric has said it will begin commercial production of lithium-ion batteries in the first quarter of 2025-26 (the ongoing April-June quarter).

Given that the company raised ₹1,227 crore in August last year to scale up its cell gigafactory’s capacity to 6.4 GWh, investors are expected to pose questions on the project’s updated timeline and how the delay could impact Ola Electric’s profitability target.

Also read | Ola's battery cell ambition has run into a bump

Regulatory clarity

With Sebi, the Central Consumer Protection Authority, and the ministries of heavy industry and road transport scrutinizing various aspects of Ola Electric’s business, the company’s management is expected to address investor concerns over the issues involved.

In Maharashtra, the state’s transport authority last month asked regional officers to take action against 121 Ola Electric stores that were operating without trade certificates.

While the company’s sales network has more than 4,000 stores, clarity on how many stores have trade certificates and the status of the regulatory inquiries are expected to come up during the management’s call with analysts and investors.

RoadsterX plans

After multiple delays, Ole Electric began delivering its electric motorcycle RoadsterX to consumers this month. The company is expected to provide insights into initial demand trends for the bike as the e-motorcycle market remains nascent.

Moreover, analysts and investors will also be looking for clarity on how many bookings the company received in the last three months for RoadsterX, and the number of deliveries so far.

Also read | Bhavish Aggarwal curbs ambition, seeks to raise $300mn for AI venture Krutrim