The CEO who says an asteroid is coming to destroy America’s businesses

But a few years ago, when a gigantic containership got stuck in the Suez Canal, lots of people suddenly found themselves captivated by supply-chain logistics. This was Ryan Petersen’s chance to geek out.

As the founder and chief executive of Flexport, which helps companies move all kinds of stuff from wherever it’s made to wherever it’s sold, Petersen was perfectly situated to explain the traffic jam in a clear way. Once the boat was unstuck, he even published a children’s picture book called “The Big Ship and the Little Digger," turning the complexities of ocean freight and global trade into simple language that anyone could understand.

Now he’s doing it again to make another crisis accessible—and not for a bunch of children.

This time, Petersen is explaining to anyone who will listen why hefty U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could be catastrophic for America’s small businesses.

“If they don’t change the tariffs, it’s going to be an extinction-level, asteroid-wiping-out-the-dinosaurs kind of event," he told me. “Only these aren’t dinosaurs. These are dynamic, healthy businesses."

He knows this because those businesses are his customers.

They use Flexport to transport products from the factory to your front door. Petersen’s company handles everything from booking space on planes, trucks and enormous ocean carriers to managing all the tedious paperwork along the way.

It’s a sleek tech platform that gives Petersen a window into the entire global economy, providing a real-time look at the situation on the ground and on the water. He can track exactly how much it costs to ship any item anywhere—and how much more it costs because of tariffs. His company has visibility into about 1% of U.S. trade, he said, which is more than enough data for him to connect dots.

“We have a pretty good view of what’s happening," he says.

And what’s happening isn’t pretty.

If the tariffs on Chinese goods continue at this rate, he says, thousands of American companies will fail and millions of employees will lose their jobs.

President Trump says the current 145% tariffs on Chinese imports will come down substantially. But until then, companies are operating in conditions of tremendous uncertainty.

For now, they are paralyzed. Before long, they could be pulverized.

Petersen, 44, wanted to show Flexport customers that he felt their pain and would use his influence to advocate for their interests.

So he’s spreading the word about the dangers facing small businesses. He’s going on hit podcasts to discuss how tariffs are hurting American companies. On social media, he’s sharing logistics data to show why those companies are doomed without a change in tariff policies. This is how you know people are paying attention: He recently posted on X about ocean-container booking statistics—and got 3 million views.

He’s also been contacted by CEOs who found his trenchant commentary online and wanted to talk without even realizing their companies were Flexport customers.

They’re seeking him out at this moment because his particular expertise makes his perspective especially valuable.

“Supply chains are like refrigerators," Molson Hart, whose educational-toy company is a Flexport customer, recently posted. “Everyone needs them. No one knows how they work."

Petersen knows how they work better than just about anyone.

And he always wants to know more. In fact, when the pandemic clogged up supply chains, he rented a boat so he could tour the Port of Long Beach, Calif., and see the bottlenecks for himself.

When he’s not cruising around ports for information, he’s getting it directly from his company’s 13,000 customers. They are companies that sell electronics, furniture, clothing, toys, diapers, pet feeders—basically everything. He makes it a priority to talk with as many of them as he possibly can.

The more companies that Petersen spoke with, the more he felt that he needed to speak up for them.

“It was just very obvious they felt really helpless and that nobody was explaining their point of view," he said. “Nobody had their back."

He did what he could to help. Now he’s hoping that his criticism of the tariffs and warnings about their impact will help shape policy.

This past week, he traveled from San Francisco to Washington, D.C., where he spent two days meeting with government officials to make the case that tariffs pose an existential threat to his customers.

America’s biggest and most powerful businesses have armies of lobbyists and CEOs who dine with the president. Even for them, tariffs are disruptive. But for America’s small businesses, they could be destructive.

Through no fault of their own, he explains, their business models have broken. They can’t afford the latest tariffs on Chinese goods. But Vietnam’s factories won’t bother with their production jobs, so they also can’t move their manufacturing out of China. “If they could," Petersen said, “they would have." Meanwhile, there is too much in flux to figure out what they should do. And if they haven’t moved their supply chains already, there’s no point in moving them yet. “It’s either too late or too early," Petersen said.

They’re about as stuck as that humongous ship in the Suez Canal.

Even companies that planned for tariffs are scrambling because of how steep they are and how suddenly they were implemented.

When American businesses place orders in China, it takes about 90 days before their goods are ready for shipping, Petersen says, which means they couldn’t have priced in such crippling tariffs. They were basically punished for decisions they made in a completely different business environment.

Of course, U.S. companies loaded up on inventory and raced to get their orders out of China ahead of the tariff deadline, so product shortages and exorbitant price hikes are still months away.

But since the tariffs took effect, ocean-freight bookings from China to the U.S. have dropped 60%, Petersen says. In response, containership operators are shrinking their boats and canceling trips altogether. It takes a while for downstream consequences to flow through the system—but logistics nerds can look at the data on their screens and see into the future.

If tariffs continue at this rate, Petersen says, it’s only a matter of time before that asteroid hits.

He predicts the White House will back down before then. And as he waits for the Trump administration to slash tariffs and negotiate trade deals, Petersen is giving customers one piece of advice that he’s trying to follow himself.

“In a crisis," he says, “everybody rallies around the calmest person in the room."

If he writes another children’s book, it sounds like he already has the title.

Write to Ben Cohen at ben.cohen@wsj.com