A New Global Tax Is About to Raise Billions. The U.S. Is Missing Out.

Johnson & Johnson, Baxter International and Zimmer Biomet are all warning investors that the 2021 international tax deal will make them pay higher taxes this year as Switzerland, South Korea, Japan and European Union countries implement the accord.

U.S. companies that enjoyed single-digit tax rates in some foreign countries now must pay at least 15% in each. But even though Treasury officials were crucial in forging the international accord and President Biden has pushed to implement it, Congress hasn’t changed U.S. tax law to conform to it. Republicans generally oppose the global deal, contending that Biden administration negotiators gave away too much of the U.S. tax base.

So for now, the U.S. isn’t directly collecting any money from domestic or foreign companies because of the deal.

J&J is forecasting a roughly 1.5-percentage-point increase in its tax rate. Joseph Wolk, J&J’s chief financial officer, told analysts recently that the global minimum tax, as it stands now, is “reducing U.S. incentives for innovation and resulting in U.S.-based multinational companies paying more tax revenue to foreign governments."

Other companies pointing to potentially higher taxes in 2024 include Johnson Controls, Henry Schein, Teleflex, Enovis, Edwards Lifesciences and Methode Electronics.

The corporate warnings mark the first concrete estimates of how the global minimum tax deal is affecting companies—and, by extension, governments—around the world. The agreement was backed by about 140 jurisdictions and hailed by their leaders as a crucial step toward reducing cross-border tax competition and making companies pay more to support governments.

Thirty-six countries have implemented the deal or have new rules in progress, and businesses with global revenues exceeding €750 million—equivalent to about $810 million—could pay new taxes on profits.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which spearheads the minimum tax project, recently estimated that businesses altogether will pay additional taxes of between $155 billion and $192 billion annually, an increase of between 6.5% and 8.1% from current tax payments. Some analysts looking at company projections have said it could be lower.

The U.S. created a minimum tax on companies’ foreign income in 2017, but it applies to their global profits, not country-by-country as required by the international deal. The U.S. created a second minimum tax in 2022, but that, too, doesn’t align with other countries’ levies. China also hasn’t implemented the agreement.

American companies are facing higher tax bills even though the U.S. hasn’t changed its rules. That is because the deal allows countries to make global companies operating in their jurisdictions pay at least 15% there. So Switzerland can make U.S. and Japanese companies pay 15% tax on their Swiss operations.

In many cases, American companies have already maxed out U.S. foreign tax credits. So paying more abroad won’t reduce their U.S. taxes. Instead, they effectively will pay taxes in two countries on the same income.

Meanwhile, the U.S. isn’t benefiting directly. The rules say countries can require that their home companies pay 15% in every country where they operate. So South Korea can ensure that a South Korean company pays 15% in the U.K., the U.S. and France. If it doesn’t pay enough in those countries—for instance, because U.S. research incentives lower its tax rate there—it must pay more to South Korea, not the U.S.

The OECD estimates that the U.S. will get some new revenue even without implementing the global deal. That is because some companies may shift operations and profits to the U.S. as tax rates become more similar around the world.

“I’m not seeing so much of that actually happening yet," said Jason Yen of Ernst & Young.

Suky Upadhyay, CFO of medical technology company Zimmer Biomet, said the company would see a tax rate increase of about 1.5 percentage points. That is “not devastating but still impactful nonetheless," he said in an interview.

While that won’t change Zimmer Biomet’s strategy in the short-term, Upadhyay said the company ultimately might consider putting future investment in the Americas rather than Europe because of the shrinking financial gap between the two locations.

Write to Richard Rubin at richard.rubin@wsj.com, Jennifer Williams at jennifer.williams@wsj.com and Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com