Early monsoon in India sparks hopes for bumper harvests, easing inflation
Summary
Monsoon rains are expected to hit Kerala on 27 May, five days earlier than usual, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. In 2024, the monsoon had reached the coast of Kerala on 30 May, 8 June in 2023, 29 May in 2022, 3 June in 2021 and 1 June in 2020.New Delhi: India is anticipating a boost to its crucial farm sector as the monsoon rains are forecast to arrive in Kerala on 27 May, the earliest in six years, raising hopes for bumper Kharif harvests.
Agriculture experts say the early arrival of monsoon will aid key summer crops such as paddy, maize, cotton, soybean and other oilseeds. The southwest monsoon is crucial to India's agrarian economy as it delivers nearly 70% of its annual rainfall. Also, about 51% of India's net sowing area is dependent on monsoon rains.
Early and plentiful monsoon rains are poised to ease food supply worries, stimulate rural spending, and curb food inflation, which should also reduce electricity and diesel consumption for irrigation, they said.
Monsoon rains are expected to hit Kerala on 27 May, five days earlier than usual, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. In 2024, the monsoon had reached the coast of Kerala on 30 May, 8 June in 2023, 29 May in 2022, 3 June in 2021 and 1 June in 2020.
The early and above-normal monsoon tends to favour not just the kharif crops but also bodes well for the reservoir level and the rabi season. In addition to these crops, the outlook is also favourable for oilseeds such as soybean, horticulture crops such as tomatoes and onions, with acreages expected to increase.
"Its an indication that we are going to have normal monsoon. Given the current circumstances, it would further boost our productivity and will ensure food security," said food and agriculture specialist Devinder Sharma.
"The impact will be positive considering the forecast of normal monsoon. The only factor is distribution of rains with time during season," said Sudhir Panwar, farm expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.
Buoyed by an above-normal monsoon forecast, the Centre has set a record foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for the crop year 2025-26. This target is 3.8%, or 13 million tonnes, more than the 341.55 mt foodgrain production recorded in 2024-25.
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R.S. Ghuman, economist and professor of eminence at Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, added, “If the early monsoon progresses in north in sync, then it would be beneficial especially for paddy sowing belt of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Early rain will replenish the ground water especially in Punjab, which would lead to less extraction of ground water and would also boost productivity."
Also, with the production increase expected in paddy, wheat, maize and other cereals, it will also help the Indian government ease its ban on exports of commodities such as wheat that will benefit farmers, traders and exporters. Good rainfall will also help bring down food inflation. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), during its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held from 7 to 9 April, said that adverse weather events and the rise in international agricultural commodity prices pose risks to food inflation.
According to the IMD, the above-normal seasonal rainfall is ‘very likely’ over most parts of the country, except some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India, and South Peninsular India, where below-normal rain is expected. On 15 April, IMD said that India is expected to receive an above-normal monsoon from June to September this year. The southwest monsoon rainfall in 2025 is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). The seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall during 1971-2020 was 87 cm.
Private forecaster Skymet on 9 April said the country will likely receive normal monsoon rain in 2025 at 103% (give or take 5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for June to September. The spread of normal is 96-104% of LPA.
However, some concerns remain.
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“It’s good news that monsoon is going to strike Kerala coast five days before. However, a lot will depend on other variables such as intensity and how it progresses in North. As many times, it is stalled in the central part of the country," said Ajay Vir Jakhar, chairman of Bharat Krishak Samaj, a non-political farmer organization.
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