Economy
Can India ward off Trump’s fury on illegal immigration?
Summary
- India has reportedly agreed to take back 18,000 Indians residing in the US illegally. How many Indians are living in the US illegally and why is India willing to cooperate with the US? Mint explores.
With Donald Trump returning to power as the US President, India finds itself in a tough position, particularly on two fronts: trade and the migration of Indians to the US. Since India may be the third or fourth biggest source of illegal immigration to the US by some estimates, forging a cooperative relationship with Washington could help the country avoid trade barriers in the future.
The ministry of external affairs last week said India will be willing to take back illegal migrants if their nationality as Indians is established, while Bloomberg reported quoting sources that the Indian government intends to repatriate 18,000 Indians residing in the US illegally. But how many such Indians are there in the US? According to the latest data from the Department of Homeland Security, the estimated number of unauthorized immigrants from India was 220,000, the ninth largest, in 2022. However, the Pew Research Center and the Center for Migration Studies of New York estimate a much higher number: nearly three times more. The difference between the official and unofficial figures for other top countries—Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador—is not that alarming.
At the same time, a large number of Indians also migrate to the US legally, forming the biggest group to attain H-1B visas, a work visa that allows US employers to hire foreign workers. Trump’s new immigration policy has proposed to restrict birthright citizenship, which could significantly impact H-1B visa holders, leaving their US-born children in future without automatic citizenship.
Also Read: America’s H-1B visa is vital to US interests—and suits India too
The numbers game
Still, the Trump administration’s stance has not been as stringent on H1-B visas as on illegal immigration. This offers India a chance to strike a better deal for skilled Indians looking to migrate to the US legally, by being tough on illegal migration.
While it is not clear whether India is the ninth-largest source of unauthorized immigrants (by official estimate), third-largest (by the Pew Research Center) or fourth-largest (by the Center for Migration Studies), the number of Indians detained for this reason is one of the biggest even by official numbers. According to the latest US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) report, Indians make up the fourth-highest share of detainees in the US, with 2,647 individuals held between October 2023 and September 2024, trailing only Latin American countries like Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala.
Meanwhile, border encounters in the US involving undocumented Indians have surged nearly fivefold from nearly 20,000 (October 2018-September 2019) to over 90,000 (October 2023-September 2024). While these numbers appear alarming, Indians still represent a relatively modest share of unlawful border crossings, accounting for just 2-3%.The number of unauthorized immigrants from India does not make up more than 7% of 11 million in total, even going by the highest estimate. As such, the Trump administration’s focus may be more on Mexico, which accounts for about 40% of unauthorized immigrants.
Also Read: Unpacking Trump’s birthright citizenship restriction: Who stands to lose?
Tough trade-off
While India may not be the US’ biggest problem in terms of illegal migration, the US is one of India's leading trading partners, making it more likely for India to cooperate on new immigration policies. Colombia already got a taste of Trump’s trade war threats on Sunday, as he briefly imposed high tariffs—and even travel bans—on the South American nation after its unfriendly response to deportations.
The US has become India's largest export destination, with nearly 19% of total exports in 2024-25 so far. In the past seven years, the US has surpassed China as India's leading trading partner five times, and its share in India's overall trade has grown from 8% to nearly 11% in about a decade.
However, potential trade tensions loom: During Trump's first presidency, India faced higher effective tariffs, and he recently threatened to reciprocate India's ‘high’ tariff rates, especially the 100% rate on certain products.
India’s strategic cooperation along with significant contribution in terms of skilled workers and trade partnership suggest that both nations recognize their ‘mutual benefits’ and any future immigration policies will likely navigate carefully around these intersections.
Also read: Indian IT services companies shed reliance on H-1B visas
