Economy
The week in charts: IT earnings, growth forecast, gold prices
Summary
In this weekly Plain Facts compilation, we present to you data-based insights, with easy-to-read charts, to help you delve deeper into the stories reported by Mint in the week gone by.India’s IT sector, heavily reliant on the business from the US, is gripped with uncertainties related to the US tariffs and a global slowdown. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced India’s growth forecast to 6.2% for FY26 from 6.5% earlier. Gold prices have surged past the ₹1 lakh-mark in the retail market.
Tech troubles
India’s IT sector is feeling the strain as rising global economic uncertainties due to the US-imposed tariffs weigh heavily on growth prospects. After registering double-digit revenue growth in FY22 and FY23, leading IT firms are now facing low single digit expansion, a Mint analysis showed. In Q4FY25, top players—Wipro, Infosys, and HCL Technologies—even saw a decline in revenues on a month-on-month basis, signalling the impact of external risks. The earnings calls echoed caution, with words like "uncertainties" and "tariffs" setting the tone of the conversations.
Economic jitters
The IMF has trimmed India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.2% from 6.5% earlier, citing rising global trade tensions and uncertainty. Similar downgrades were made for the US, China, and other major economies in its latest World Economic Outlook report. Global GDP is now projected to grow 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% earlier. The report noted that the 21st-century world was deeply integrated with interconnected supply chains and financial flows, and any unwinding of this integration could trigger significant economic upheaval.
Gold rush
₹1 lakh: That’s the landmark price per 10 gram gold touched in the retail market on Tuesday, as investors rushed to the safe-haven asset amid global economic jitters. The surge, as much as 20% in just four months, was driven by global uncertainty, including US President Trump’s criticism of the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a weakening dollar, and escalating geopolitical tensions. With fears of a global recession looming and inflation concerns in the US mounting, gold’s status as a hedge against uncertainty has only strengthened.
Bold bet
The Uttar Pradesh government is reportedly aiming to triple the state’s exports to $61.5 billion by 2030 through a new export policy for the period 2025-30. However, a Mint analysis suggests this goal may be too ambitious. From 2013-14 to 2023-24, the state’s exports grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. At this pace, exports would only hit $28 billion by 2030-31. To meet the $61.5 billion target, a much higher CAGR of 16.9% is needed. Nevertheless, the state’s exports, which are dominated by electronic goods, can get a boost from the opportunities arising in the sector amid the trade war.
PSU payouts
The global uncertainties unleashed by the US tariffs has reignited investor confidence in public sector undertakings (PSUs). State-run firms delivered a record ₹1.5 trillion in dividends to the government in FY25, with ₹69,000 crore expected in FY26. However, experts warn that high dividend yields may mislead investors into backing underperforming PSUs. A Mint analysis showed that PSU profits grew 44% in FY24, but dividends grew at a slower pace. The dividend payout ratio in FY24 was 13%, much below the median payout ratio of 20% over the past six years.
Shielding steel
12%: That’s the safeguard duty the government has imposed on steel imports to protect domestic producers. The duty will be effective for 200 days starting 21 April. This decision comes amid rising concerns over dumping of cheap steel, particularly from China, following the US tariffs. India’s steel imports surged 15% to 9.5 million tonnes in FY25, while exports fell 35% to a decade-low of 5 million tonnes, data from steel ministry showed. A safeguard duty is seen as necessary to protect local manufacturing, investments, and jobs.
Pulse woes
Domestic output of pulses is expected to decline for the third consecutive year in 2024-25. Pulse output are expected to fall by 5% in FY25 compared to FY24 and 16% from their FY22 peak. Four of the five crops—chickpeas, pigeon peas, black gram, green gram, and lentils—are expected to see a decline in output from 2021-22. The decline in pulses output coincided with record imports in FY25 after import duties were removed in May 2024, raising questions on India’s goal of self-sufficiency by 2027, an analysis by howindialives showed.
Chart of the week: Terror fallout
The recent terror attack on tourists in Pahalgam has brought back the spotlight on the security of the state and could potentially lead to reduced tourism. In the past few years, the state has seen increased tourism, with tourist arrivals rising 1.3 million in 2016 to 3.5 million in 2024.
Follow our data stories on the “In Charts" and “Plain Facts" pages on the Mint website.
