Trump’s win signals more confrontation with Beijing

Trump’s election comes at a starkly different moment in U.S.-China ties than when he first took office in 2017. Prior to Trump’s first term, Washington largely played down differences with Beijing in a bid to bring China into the U.S.-led global order.

Eight years later, Democrats and Republicans have converged on a far more hawkish posture, much of that a direct result of Trump’s tough rhetoric and action against Beijing—and China’s own increasing assertiveness. President Biden has largely maintained policies from Trump’s first term, although he also talked about prioritizing stability in the relationship.

Trump is less likely to offer such platitudes. In his campaign speeches, he has at times described China as a threat and raised the idea of slapping 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports, while at others expressing admiration at Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ability to wield power over a vast nation.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning hewed to a cautious line on Wednesday, calling for mutual benefit between the two countries regardless of who is president.

“Our policy toward the U.S. is consistent," Mao said during a daily briefing, as major U.S. news outlets were projecting a Trump electoral victory. “We will continue to approach and handle China-U.S. relations in accordance with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation."

Mao declined to answer questions about the possibility of increased tariffs.

In a statement late Wednesday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry congratulated Trump, adding: “We respect the choice of the American people."

China was a foreign-policy priority for Trump during his first presidency, with his trade war against Beijing a hallmark of his time in office. Trump often talked in friendly terms about Xi, and exuded warmth during their in-person summit meetings.

That tone changed as Trump launched his trade war in January 2018, and curdled when the Covid-19 pandemic, which was first detected in China, spread to the U.S. in March 2020, prompting then-President Trump to accuse Beijing of having deliberately spread what he called a “plague" to America.

When President Biden took office, he retained much of Trump’s posture on China, as well as the tariffs. However, Biden modulated the tone, saying he wanted better ties with Beijing even as he took actions such as limiting access to sensitive technologies that sought to contain its economy.

In the leadup to this month’s election, many Chinese officials and ordinary citizens saw little difference in how Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate, would handle relations with Beijing.

Chinese officials especially recoiled at what they regarded as the Biden administration’s hypocrisy in stating a desire for better ties while enacting tough policies. And state media has consistently portrayed the U.S. as an aggressor toward China, a depiction that will likely only intensify under Trump.

At the same time, China could benefit if Trump weakens U.S. alliances. An especially sore point for Beijing in recent years was how the Biden administration nudged partners in Europe and Asia towards a more confrontational stance with China.

Trump’s praise of Xi, and his calls for higher tariffs on allies and for them to spend more on defense, has created uneasiness in Asia, where many of China’s neighbors, including South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, rely heavily on Washington’s backing.

“Trump’s trade policy last time was a huge headache, and they do worry this time that this promise of tariffs will sow division among allies when we need to be unified to deal with China," said Michael J. Green, chief executive of the United States Studies Center at Australia’s University of Sydney.

Trump’s victory has stirred particular anxiety in Taiwan, a self-governed island democracy that faces a growing military threat from Beijing. Biden said four times that the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, breaking with longstanding U.S. ambiguity—though his advisers walked back the comment each time.

Trump, in contrast, has been more critical of the island democracy, calling on it to pay more for its own defense. He has also accused Taiwan, which is a world leader in semiconductor manufacturing, of stealing American jobs.

Though many of Trump’s foreign-policy advisers have made high-profile visits to Taiwan and criticized Biden for not doing enough to support Taiwan, Trump himself has highlighted Taiwan’s proximity to the Chinese mainland—and its distance from the U.S.—in recent interviews.

“Taiwan is obviously going to be concerned," said Wen-ti Sung, a Taipei-based nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. “Trump has made it clear he doesn’t distinguish between friends and foes, he manages relationships."

Taiwan could be at a disadvantage in such an equation, Sung said. “If pay-to-play is the name of the game, then whoever has the biggest purse will likely fare better," Sung said. “China is many times bigger, so Taiwan has reason to be concerned about its capacity to match China in winning U.S. friendship under Trump."

Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, congratulated Trump on social-media platform X, expressing his confidence that ties between Washington and Taipei, “built on shared values & interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability."

One wild card for Beijing under the new administration is the possibility of warming ties between Washington and Moscow. The war in Ukraine has pushed China and Russia closer together, though Trump could seek to undermine that partnership through extending an olive branch to Russia.

Still, in recent conversations with former Chinese officials, many told the University of Sydney’s Green that the trajectory of relations between the U.S. and China would remain the same regardless of the election outcome.

“There is a bottom-line assumption baked into Chinese analysis of the U.S. that no matter who becomes president, strategic competition with China will continue," said Green, who was senior Asia director at the National Security Council under George W. Bush. “Then it’s a matter of—my words, not theirs—China picking its poison."

Chun Han Wong contributed to this article.

Write to Brian Spegele at Brian.Spegele@wsj.com and Austin Ramzy at austin.ramzy@wsj.com