Trump won’t rule out potential recession this year

“I hate to predict things like that," Trump told Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America."

The taped interview ran after Trump’s tariff moves have whiplashed stock investors. First, the administration imposed broad 25% levies on goods from Mexico and the U.S. Then it delayed the tariffs on some of those imports for one month, when Trump will reveal a broad set of tariffs on imports from countries that impose tariffs on American goods in what he calls “reciprocal tariffs."

Trump’s erratic application of tariff policy has contributed to investor nervousness. Tariffs could raise prices for American consumers, who are already dealing with inflation that has stubbornly remained higher than Federal Reserve goals. Signs of an economic slowdown are also stoking fears about a recession.

In a separate television appearance on Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Americans should “absolutely not" expect a recession.

“There’s going to be no recession in America," Lutnick told NBC’s Meet the Press. Lutnick said Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will ultimately drive down prices and lead to an economic boom for the U.S. “You are going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America," he said. “I would never bet on recession. No chance."

Lutnick also confirmed that Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will take effect this Wednesday and that reciprocal tariffs will begin April 2. He said Trump is going to negotiate country-by-country to drive down other countries’ trade barriers to U.S. farmers, ranchers, and fishermen. The administration has suggested that reciprocal tariffs could be as high as 250% on Canadian dairy and lumber.

“Will there be distortions? Of course," Lutnick said. “Foreign goods may get a little more expensive, but American goods are going to get cheaper, and you’re going to be helping Americans by buying American."

Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, told ABC’s This Week that Trump’s tariffs will drive job growth. “President Trump wants to bring the jobs home, bring the wealth—the wealth home, and bring the wages home," he said.

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D., Mich.) said she isn’t against tariffs, but against the way Trump is handling them. “The way that he’s on again, off again, you know, pounding Canada as if they’re the exact same thing as China, it just creates this chaotic feeling," she said.

Because of its proximity, manufacturing, and agriculture, Michigan is one of the states that is probably most affected by the tariffs, because its top market is Canada. “So I just want a scalpel and not a sledgehammer for these things," Slotkin said.

Hassett said that “Right now there’s a very, very asymmetric trade policy around the world where everybody’s putting high tariffs on our stuff if we sell it there, and we’ve got very low tariffs when we bring it in here."

Trump also raised tariffs on Chinese imports last week by another 10%, to 20%.

Asked if he could give the business community more clarity on tariffs, Trump told Fox they likely won’t go down and could go up as time goes by. “What I have to do is build a strong country," he said. “You can’t really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective. We go by quarters. And you can’t go by that. You have to do what’s right."

The Trump administration is also slashing federal agency staffing and budgets, though some of those efforts, run by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, have encountered resistance. Courts have blocked some of the spending freezes and staff cuts, and agency heads have pushed back.

Musk argued with cabinet heads in a meeting last week, the New York Times reported, including with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The report said Musk and Rubio clashed over staffing cuts.

Trump has since posted on his social media account that Musk and Rubio have a “great relationship."

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Sunday that Trump had dinner at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday with Rubio and Musk, and that Sean Hannity of Fox News stopped by their table.

Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com