Economy
Uttar Pradesh aims to triple exports by 2030: Bold vision or too ambitious?
Summary
- Uttar Pradesh government will soon approve a new export policy for 2025-30 targeting exports of $61.5 billion ( ₹5 trillion) by 2030. Is the aim achievable, and where does the state have advantages? Mint explores:
The Uttar Pradesh government is working on a new export policy aimed at tripling the state’s outbound shipments by 2030—an extremely ambitious target, especially amid global trade uncertainties and tariff headwinds. Still, there’s room for meaningful growth if the state can tap into emerging opportunities, particularly in electronic and engineering goods, where a strong industrial base already exists.
According to a Mint report, the state will soon approve a new export policy for 2025-30 that targets total exports of $61.5 billion ( ₹5 trillion) by 2030. However, a Mint analysis of the state's historical export data suggests this goal may be too optimistic. Uttar Pradesh’s exports rose from $13.3 billion in 2013-14 to $20.6 billion in 2023-24, recording a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. At this pace, exports would only reach about $28 billion by 2030–31. To meet the $61.5 billion target, the state would need to clock a CAGR of 16.9%—a steep climb.
Encouragingly, Uttar Pradesh’s exports have grown at a faster pace than the all-India CAGR of 3.3% between 2013-14 and 2023-24. The state’s exports are currently the fifth largest in the country, but far behind Gujarat’s $134 billion and Maharashtra’s $67.2 billion. As a landlocked state, UP also faces greater logistical challenges in scaling exports compared to coastal peers.
Policy shift and export mix
The state’s policy revamp comes as global trade recalibrates from disruptions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
Read this | ‘Looted’ nation: The ultimate guide to decoding Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs
The planned policy will build on an earlier export strategy announced for 2020–25, which lacked specific targets. In 2022, however, state ministers had indicated an ambition to raise Uttar Pradesh’s exports to ₹3 trillion within three years. Between April 2024 and February 2025, exports stood at around $20 billion, or approximately ₹1.7 trillion—highlighting the steep climb ahead.
The new export policy must account for the shifting global trade dynamics and focus on diversifying export markets. The US, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, the UK, Nepal, and Germany, among others, are the top destinations for Uttar Pradesh’s exports, according to a 2021 report by Exim Bank.
Currently, manufacturing goods are the highest contributor to the state’s exports, with a nearly 80% share in its export basket. Agriculture and allied products make up around 17% of the share. Over the past decade, the share of manufacturing in its export pie has risen, with a concurrent fall seen in the hold of agriculture-related products.
Manufacturing push
With electronic and engineering goods having a strong presence in Uttar Pradesh’s export ecosystem, the state can capitalize on opportunities arising from the trade war between the US and China. Electronic and engineering goods comprise the highest share at 22% and 19%, respectively, in total exports by the state.
Read this | Manufacturing PMI rebounds—but don’t celebrate just yet
Manufacturing around these sectors is concentrated in export clusters of Noida and Ghaziabad and is expected to gain more from rapid development in the areas adjacent to the national capital.
With the state looking to double down on its exports, with manufacturing being the centrepiece, it faces competition from other states such as Tamil Nadu, which has the highest number of factories in India.
Southern states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Telangana were the beneficiaries of Apple’s shift to India for iPhone assembly and manufacturing.
Also read | A sugar-coated catastrophe: Groundwater crisis in Uttar Pradesh
However, Uttar Pradesh may catch the next wave, with iPhone maker Foxconn having started discussions to set up an electronics manufacturing unit in the state, the Press Trust of India reported. While the state, with focused policies, may attract many companies and boost exports, its target of triple exports by 2030 will be ambitious.
