Elections
Lok Sabha elections 2024: Key states and parties that moved the needle
Summary
- There were states and parties that held sway over the 2024 results, on one side or the other.
In its stated ambition of increasing its seat count beyond 400, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was banking on two things. One, repeat its strong performance from 2019 in states with seat heft, especially in the Hindi-speaking belt. Two, make inroads in states where it has never held sway, notably in South India and West Bengal. On both counts, it fell short, resulting in an outcome that is likely to still fetch it a third term but with a diminished clout.
For the BJP, this downsizing is especially worrying because it has happened in some of the largest, and electorally most important, states. This is the case notably in Uttar Pradesh, which alone accounts for about 15% of members of Parliament (MPs). In UP, the BJP’s tally declined from 62 seats to 32 seats (a decline of 30). Other notable declines were in Maharashtra (down 13 seats), Rajasthan (down 10 seats) and West Bengal (down 6 seats).
Also read: Lok Sabha elections 2024: How the verdict unfolded, in 11 charts
There were states where the BJP held firm. Among the 19 largest states by seats, which account for 509 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, this set was led by Madhya Pradesh (a clean sweep of 29 seats), Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. Among states where it gained, the most significant was Odisha, where it increased its Lok Sabha tally from 8 to 19 seats, as well as won the state assembly.
But when it came to carving out new ground in less-chartered territory, the BJP was unable to make the impression it wanted to. While it registered small seat gains in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, that was neutralised by its losses in Karnataka, and by coming a cropper in Tamil Nadu.
Also read: Lok Sabha Election 2024: How women candidates performed
Congress on a Rebound
In contrast, the Indian National Congress (INC) was a story of bouncing back, after a string of electoral setbacks over the past decade. The Grand Old Party roughly doubled its seat share, even though it registered a more modest rise in its national vote share. Among the seats it contested, its vote share increased from 24.8% in 2019 to 34.7% in 2024.
One strand of interest in this showing is its performance in direct contests with the BJP. In 2024, the INC was in a direct fight with the BJP in 288 constituencies. Of these, it secured more votes than the BJP in 95 seats (or roughly about one-third). This is a contrast to 2019, when it went up against the BJP in 374 seats, but won only 16% of them. In other words, it doubled its strike rate in such seats. In vote share terms too, 2024 marked a substantial turnaround for the INC. In 2019, in seats where it contested against the BJP, it garnered 23.3% of votes. In 2024, that has risen to 36.3% of votes.
Lok Sabha Election: BJP’s big leads down, Congress wins by satisfactory margins
Overall, the INC contested 328 seats in 2024, down from 421 seats in 2019. Focusing on fewer seats, and being more flexible in seat sharing, enabled it to focus its resources and campaign more efficiently. The Congress this time around also benefitted hugely from the quirks of the first-past-the-post electoral system, which can lead to wild swings in seats from only a small shift in votes, often at the cost of incumbents. States where the INC has gained vote share include Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and crucially, Uttar Pradesh.
Regional Parties: Mixed Bag
One of the important prognosis of the exit poll numbers was the BJP gaining in clout, sometimes at the expense of regional parties. The national party was looking to gain seats in states that were bastions of regional parties, like the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal or the DMK in Tamil Nadu. With the BJP not turning in a performance that matched the exit poll forecasts, the regional parties gained or held on, though there were some among them that saw a slippage.
Lok Sabha election: Some metros veer towards Cong; BJP leads overall
There are parties that have come out decidedly stronger (for example, Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and TDP in Andhra Pradesh). Perhaps, the most stellar showing came from the SP, which surged from 5 seats in 2019 to 37 seats in 2024. The most important regional party in Uttar Pradesh has also increased its vote share in seats contested by it by 5 percentage points, from 38.5% to 43.4%. The other large regional party that heaved a sigh of relief is the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, which despite predictions to the contrary has managed to increase its seats, as well as its vote share by about 3 percentage points.
There are some regional parties that either weakened or did not perform as expected (for example, Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, AAP in Delhi and the RJD in Bihar). Among parties not aligned to any particular alliance, the worst performer was the BJD in Odisha, which has lost seats in the Lok Sabha, as well as control of the state assembly. Its vote share in the Lok Sabha elections has fallen by 6 percentage points to 37%.
Another loser was the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh, which won 10 seats last time and none this time around. In Delhi, despite the AAP campaigning around the arrest of its chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, AAP has not managed to secure any seats against the BJP, though it has gained seats in Punjab.
