Elections
The voting patterns of India’s biggest cities: What data shows
Summary
The Bharatiya Janata Party currently holds 14 out of a set of 30 constituencies across Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Hyderabad, and Bengaluru. Its vote share in these seats was nearly 39% in 2019.While most Indians live in villages, the most populous metro cities often take on a prime role in shaping the country’s political discourse. So who do they vote for in Lok Sabha election? Some of these urban centres have already voted in the first two phases of the current election, while constituencies in Hyderabad will go for polls on Monday.
In 30 selected constituencies spanning six metro cities, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) increased its vote share from 18% in 2009 to 32% in 2014 and nearly 39% in 2019, a Mint analysis shows. On the flip side, the Congress’ vote share declined from 26% in 2009 to 15% and 18% in the following two elections.
The analysis is based on constituencies in six of India’s largest cities—Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Hyderabad, and Bengaluru—which accounted for nearly 6% of all registered electors in the 2019 election.
Follow our election-related data analysis in the “In Charts" and "Plain Facts" sections.
Did the metro city constituencies drive election results in any different direction?
In 2009, these metros were slightly less enthusiastic about the Congress than the rest of India: while the party got 28.6% votes overall, in metros, its share was 25.9%.
However, in 2014 and 2019, the metros’ preference for the winning party (BJP) was almost in line with the overall picture.
Also read: Voter turnout: What data says about reluctant electors
The ‘none of the above’ option, which was introduced in a Lok Sabha election for the first time in 2014, has not found too many takers in these cities, getting just 0.9% and 1% vote share in 2014 and 2019, respectively. This was almost in line with the national figure of 1.1% each in these two election years.
Despite this growing affinity for the BJP, the stranglehold of the party is weak in some metros. While BJP managed impressive wins in Bengaluru, Delhi and Mumbai in 2019, it had a tough fight in cities such as Kolkata, where it struggled to win not even a single seat in 2019.
In Chennai, where it contested in alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the winner in all three seats was the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).
Overall, the BJP clinched victory in 14 of 30 metro seats analysed, followed by the All India Trinamool Congress and DMK with eight and three seats, respectively, in 2019. Currently, one of the 30 seats is vacant.
Also read: BJP’s Surat victory: From unopposed wins to crowded contests, what data shows
These urban centres are often seen as hubs of progress but have been grappling with declining voter turnouts. Some of them had a lower voter participation compared to the national turnout in the past decade.
Hyderabad saw the biggest drop in voter turnout in 2019, when it fell nearly 4.8 percentage points since 2014. The voter turnout in Delhi dropped from 65.1% to 60.6%. Mumbai was the only metro to witness a rise in voter participation from 51.5% to 55.4%.
Among the metro constituencies that have gone for poll in the first two phases of the current Lok Sabha election, Bengaluru has seen a marginal drop in voter turnout, while the constituencies in Chennai saw a significant decline.
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The list of constituencies covered in this analysis: Secunderabad, Hyderabad and Malkajgiri (Hyderabad); Dum Dum, Diamond Harbour, Barasat, Jadavpur, Kolkata Dakshin, Kolkata Uttar, Howrah and Serampore (Kolkata); all seven constituencies of Delhi; Mumbai North, Mumbai North West, Mumbai North East, Mumbai North Central, Mumbai South Central, Mumbai South (Mumbai); Chennai North, Chennai South, Chennai Central (Chennai); Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, and Bangalore South (Bengaluru).
