Apple’s existential crisis: Can it build a future around AI?

First, Siri couldn’t do any of the cool things Apple had promised. Then came the tariffs, potentially chomping away at iPhone profit margins. A judge suggested the company be investigated over antitrust violations. Its lucrative iPhone Google search partnership came under fire. And remember the Vision Pro? Anyone?

Tim sighed. “Hey Siri, will things get better soon?"

“According to the CDC," Siri replied, “most people with a mild case of Covid-19 will begin to feel better after about a week."

Welcome to Apple in 2025, where things could either get a heck of a lot worse or a whole lot more happily-ever-after. (And yes, that really is Siri’s answer when you ask if things will get better soon.)

Of all those issues, AI might pose the biggest long-term threat. Apple built its trillion-dollar empire on great products—products that succeed because of a “deep integration of software, hardware and services," as Cook likes to remind us at every keynote.

Lately, those crucial software and services pillars lean into AI. And Apple isn’t anywhere near the shortlist of companies leading the AI charge. Google. Meta. Microsoft. OpenAI. Every few weeks they share shiny new generative-AI tools and updates. Apple? At least it still makes the hardware to run everyone else’s cool stuff, right? (Insert Genmoji-me shrugging.)

On Wednesday, during testimony in the Alphabet (Google) antitrust case, Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of services, said the company is working with AI companies to integrate more of their technology into Safari and other products, according to reports from The Verge and . Meanwhile, Bloomberg and The Information report that Apple has made internal changes to clean up the Siri mess. An Apple spokeswoman declined to comment.

So what happens next? There seem to be two clear paths. Join me in playing Choose Your Own AI-Venture, Apple Edition.

Path 1: Apple fails at AI

Back in 2011, Apple executive Phil Schiller introduced Siri as “your intelligent assistant that helps you get things done just by asking." Ever since, Apple’s been trying (key word: trying) to deliver that promise. Given that history and how disappointing the initial Apple Intelligence tools have been, it’s understandable to doubt Apple’s chances of success.

Now, the stakes are higher. We’re no longer just talking about voice commands and dad jokes. We’re talking about the tech that will power the interface of every device, from current gadgets (iPhones, AirPods, Apple Watches) to future ones (smart glasses, home robots and more).

If Apple can’t break through with strong, functional AI, its route through the Land of Mis-Siri (get it?) will have two stops:

Vessel Valley. Apple’s superior hardware is already a vessel for other companies’ products—think about Google’s Gmail, Docs and Calendar, for one thing. AI could hollow it out even more.

It’s already starting to happen. I now spend car rides talking to ChatGPT’s in-app voice mode to prep for upcoming meetings and talk through project planning. Perplexity’s new voice assistant, released in late April, can even control music, email, reminders and other iPhone functions.

During his court testimony, Cue said Apple has talked with Perplexity about deeper iPhone integration, said reports. He also predicted that AI search providers—including OpenAI, Perplexity and Anthropic—will eventually replace traditional search engines like Google. (Insert Genmoji-me saying this a few weeks ago.)

Hardware Bluffs. Without the ability to keep up in software, Apple loses its hardware edge, especially in wearables. Just look at Meta: It took basic camera-equipped sunglasses and turned them into the best AI gadget around. I wear Meta’s Ray-Bans almost daily and ask the AI questions—basic weather forecasts or how to fix that annoying leaky garden hose—instead of Siri.

With Meta’s Ray-Ban glasses, you get Meta AI in your ear.

Google’s also working on competing glasses, and OpenAI’s reportedly teaming up with former Apple design chief Jony Ive on…something. I’ve heard whispers of earbuds or some other screenless device. In a 2023 interview, OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman assured me it wasn’t a smartphone. Representatives from OpenAI and Ive’s LoveFrom declined to comment.

Yes, Apple is reportedly working on similar projects: AirPods with cameras, smart glasses and home devices. But without the core AI tech to power them, they might fail to wow the masses.

“Apple has become a classic fast follower. It’s no longer going to be a leading innovator in almost any area," said Harvard Business School professor David Yoffie, who’s studied Apple for years. That’s not a death sentence. Apple’s huge customer base gives it some cushion, he said, but the danger is what happens if it lags too far behind.

Path 2: Apple nails AI

The other path is a rose-gold road to Siri-topia. In this land, Apple has fixed all its AI problems. It’s no longer wasting time on emoji generators that put a pig’s nose on a dog’s head. Instead, it strengthened its small and large language models, beefed up its natural language processing and sprinkled in some secret Cupertino dust. Skipping along this road, you find:

Bot’s Landing. My kids finally stop shouting “Siri, you stupidhead" from the back seat. The assistant now lives up to the original promise. No more ridiculous text flubs, impromptu web searches or “let me ask ChatGPT" moments.

It’s got deeper knowledge and a human-sounding voice like Meta and OpenAI’s assistants. Unlike them, it does actual Siri stuff, like turning on your lights or opening your garage. Yes, just like the promised Alexa+ that still hasn’t arrived.

Wearable Wonderland. Good Siri lives in your stylish Apple sunglasses. It sees what you see and chimes in with useful info—identifying a weird rash or that new employee. (“That’s Bertha—with the blond hair," it whispers.)

Meanwhile, your Apple Watch is finally the medical assistant that Dr. Tim, Medicine Man, has always dreamed of. It explains your symptoms, gives you useful health tips and even alerts you when you’re about to get sick.

Tim Cook at the iPhone 11 announcement in September 2019, highlighting Apple’s hardware, software and services integration. 

Automation Alley. Apple’s sleek home robot polishes my hardwood floors, handles laundry folding and makes my almond milk latte. It can’t groom the dog but it can make the grooming appointment.

Of course, living in this dreamland requires a $29.99/month Apple Intelligence+ subscription.

“You may not need an iPhone 10 years from now, as crazy as it sounds," Cue said in his testimony, according to Bloomberg, adding that technology shifts like AI create new opportunities for new entrants and new products. If it isn’t the iPhone, then it’s clear Apple would like to be at the core of whatever is next.

To do that, Apple might need to hit the gas harder, but without overpromising and underdelivering.

We’ll find out how fast Apple is moving toward Siri-topia next month at the company’s big developer conference.

Apple’s Craig Federighi told me in October it’s “a many year—even decades long—arc of this technology playing out." Let’s hope we aren’t waiting until 2035.

Write to Joanna Stern at joanna.stern@wsj.com