As Beijing threatens, Taiwan looks nervously at Trump

The president-elect pressed Taiwan during his election campaign to spend significantly more to defend against the growing threat of attack by China. He accused Taiwan’s chip makers—a lifeblood industry accounting for 15% of gross domestic product—of stealing American jobs. He brought into his inner circle the billionaire Elon Musk, who has mocked Taiwan’s determination to maintain its autonomy. And he suggested that his own reputation is enough to deter Chinese leader Xi Jinping from invading.

At the same time, Beijing launched menacing military exercises, raising a pressing question for the island: What would Trump do if China tried to invade Taiwan?

Some in Taiwan say its survival as a self-ruled democracy is at stake, that it can’t afford to spend what Trump demands on defense and that it would wither in the crossfire of a U.S.-China trade war. Beijing claims the island as its own and hasn’t ruled out using force to take it.

Taiwan’s leadership is emphasizing the positive.

“I’m confident that the longstanding partnership between Taiwan and the U.S. will keep being a key pillar of stability in the region," President Lai Ching-te said Wednesday after a briefing on what to expect from the White House after Trump returns.

Washington is Taipei’s most important backer, selling it billions of dollars in weapons for the island’s self-defense. But while the U.S. is obligated by law to provide weapons, the U.S. maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity" about whether the U.S. military would intervene in the event of an invasion by China.

Lai, in a carefully plotted first trip as president, plans to visit Taipei’s official allies in the Pacific and is expected to pass through some U.S. territories, according to a person familiar with his travel plans. Taipei and Washington often frame these transits as routine; however, Beijing, which has previously used military drills to protest such visits by Taiwanese leaders, would see any trip to the U.S., even a stopover, as a provocation.

Taiwan officials have found solace in Trump’s initial appointments, as well as his White House record.

During the first Trump presidency, officials in Taiwan saw support from Washington reach new heights in arms sales and diplomacy. This time, the president-elect has already recruited China hawks Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Rep. Michael Waltz as national security adviser, two officials who have pushed for more robust defense against Beijing.

“We are optimistic about any plans or appointments for those who are supportive of Taiwan," Defense Minister Wellington Koo said.

Behind the scenes, senior Taiwan officials expressed uncertainty about how China might respond to a hawkish U.S. administration.

“There is an uncertainty about whether China will shift this pressure and step up its intimidation tactics toward Taiwan," said Yeh Yao-yuan, a political scientist who teaches at University of St. Thomas in Texas and briefed the president this week in Taipei. “This is what the Lai administration is more worried about."

Taiwan must brace for economic shock waves if Trump follows through with his threat of a 60% tariff on imports from China, said Chen Ming-chi, a former security adviser under the preceding president, Tsai Ing-wen.

“We don’t need to be pessimistic, but there is no room for optimism either," Chen said of Trump’s return.

Trump told The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board in October that he would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by imposing tariffs or severing trade—and that using military force against a blockade wouldn’t be necessary.

Trump has also said that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for its defense. “You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything," he said in a July interview with Bloomberg Businessweek.

Taiwan should increase its military spending to at least 10% of GDP, he told the Washington Post, in an interview that sent ripples of concern through Taipei. Taiwan’s military spending is currently at 2.45% of GDP—a lower share than Singapore’s 2.8% and South Korea’s 2.7%, the latter of which benefits from a large U.S. military presence.

Officials in Taiwan say they have already made strides in improving Taiwan’s self-defense, citing increases in military spending over the past eight years and an extension last year of mandatory military service to one year from four months. Koo, the defense minister, says Taiwan will continue to steadily increase its defense budget.

That hasn’t shifted Trump’s focus. “There is a sense from Trump and people surrounding him that U.S. allies are not doing enough for their own defense and for their security," said David Sacks, an Asia-focused fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “In Washington, the percent of GDP is really seen as a proxy for your seriousness," he said.

Even reaching the military spending level of 5% of GDP called for by some leading Republicans is unattainable in the short term, said Chieh Chung, assistant professor at Taiwan’s Tamkang University.

“This would have a serious crowding-out effect on spending for education, social welfare, transportation infrastructure, and economic development," Chieh said.

For Lai, who took office in May, staying on Washington’s good side could be a matter of political survival. His Democratic Progressive Party has held on to power through three consecutive U.S. administrations—Obama, Trump, and Biden—in large part because of public support for its approach to Beijing: adamant about denying China’s claim to the island and remaining wary about getting too close. But the DPP lacks the legislative majority that would enable it to pass any budget it wishes.

As Trump’s new team began to take shape last week, Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai launched a task force to explore strategies for collaboration. “The new people coming in will, of course, bring new ways of doing things," he said. “We will figure out how to strengthen cooperation in technology, trade, and other areas."

The advent of Rubio and Waltz were taken as promising signs—even if Beijing was relieved not to see the return of Mike Pompeo, an earlier Trump secretary of state who was a staunch Taiwan supporter. In recent years, Pompeo has called for the U.S. to recognize Taiwan as an independent state, in what would be a reversal of the stance established under President Jimmy Carter in 1979, when the U.S. recognized the government in Beijing and cut official ties with Taipei.

Waltz visited Taiwan two years ago, meeting then-President Tsai. During a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing last year he argued for the accelerated delivery of delayed U.S. weapon systems to Taiwan, after U.S. officials said that Xi had instructed the Chinese military to be able to invade Taiwan by 2027.

A series of U.S. weapons deliveries were due between 2027 and 2029, he said, adding, “From a deterrent standpoint, that’s too late."

Officials in Taiwan have been less certain about what to make of Musk’s role. The Tesla CEO’s business ties in China and his political views—he has described Taiwan as China’s equivalent of Hawaii—have raised concerns. His satellite internet provider, Starlink, has been unable to break into the Taiwan market, despite an urgent need on the island for secure connectivity.

In Taiwan, said Sacks, “the Elon Musk thing looms large."

Nevertheless, government officials in Taipei are expressing confidence.

“The president who started it all is back on the job," a Taiwanese security official said, referring to the U.S.-China trade conflict during the first Trump administration. “Truth be told, Beijing should be feeling way more pressure than we are."

Write to Joyu Wang at joyu.wang@wsj.com