global
Look east: New threats from the Bangladesh coup
Summary
- Amid a growing Chinese footprint in Asia, Bangladesh is key to India’s Neighbourhood First and Look East policies. It holds the key to its maritime and security architecture in the Bay of Bengal region.
What do violent protests, large-scale political violence, and the exit of prime minister Sheikh Hasina, mean for India, and relations with its eastern neighbour? The next few days may demand more patient diplomacy. Mint explains.
What triggered the political violence?
Bangladesh’s first PM Sheikh Mujibur Rehman introduced a 30% quota in government jobs for freedom fighters after the 1971 liberation war. This was scrapped in 2018 by his daughter, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. It was reinstated by a court in June this year—to be scrapped again by the Supreme Court in July. In response to the protests, Hasina deployed the might of the state, calling protesting students ‘Razakars’—those who sided with Pakistan during the liberation war. The quota was the trigger for violence, with anger already simmering against authoritarian streaks in Hasina’s regime.
Read more: West Asia is on the boil: What it means for India
What are the broad implications for India?
India was the first to respond to a request by Hasina as she made an emergency exit from Dhaka, and landed at Hindon airport near Delhi. Amid a growing Chinese footprint in Asia, Bangladesh is key to India’s Neighbourhood First and Look East policies. It holds the key to its maritime and security architecture in the Bay of Bengal region. The regime change has potential implications in three core areas: connectivity, trade and infrastructure projects; counter-terrorism and violent extremism; and protection of religious minorities. In the long term, India will have to navigate its interests carefully.
Who are the new faces in Bangladesh?
An interim government is likely to have Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami as key members. The army’s role still remains to be seen. India’s proximity to Awami League and Hasina means engaging with BNP and Jamaat will need patient diplomacy. Jamaat-e-Islami has not only pro-Pakistan leanings but also a radical extremist ideology.
Read more: Landslides: Why they are more frequent & lethal
How would the China-Pakistan factor play?
China will look at the political turmoil as an opportunity to ruffle Indian feathers. Pakistan will see Jamaat-e-Islami as spearheading its interests in Bangladesh, and also fan anti-India sentiment in the country, which works for both Pakistan and China. India will closely watch the Teesta river project, where it has competing interests with China, and any signs of violent extremism and radicalization, which pose a risk to India’s internal security. Further, there’s no Hasina now to guard India’s interests.
Whither India-Bangladesh ties?
India needs to watch the interim government formation. While the Awami League has been a trusted ally, India will now have to engage with BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami and the military. Notably, India has stood behind Hasina in the wake of criticism by the US and UK. However, these two powers, as also the wider western world, share both of India’s concerns—a rising China and the threats from violent extremism.
Shweta Singh is associate professor, department of international relations, South Asian University.
Read more: Can new govts in India, UK give FTA talks a push?
