Donald Trump’s approval rating is dropping

As staggered leaders worldwide have discovered, Mr Trump sees his re-election as a vindication of the MAGA movement and a mandate for radical, speedy action. Yet three months into his term, there are signs that his popular standing is eroding. His approval rating has fallen by 14 points since he entered office, more steeply than the five-point drop he had suffered by this time in his first term. In polling from YouGov/The Economist, Americans give Mr Trump a net rating of minus-seven percentage points on his handling of the economy, compared with positive ratings at this point in his first term (see chart). Nearly one in five of Mr Trump’s own voters in 2024 say they disapprove of his handling of inflation and prices, while 12% disapprove of his handling of jobs and the economy. Likewise, in early April data from the University of Michigan’s survey of consumers showed Republicans less optimistic about the economy than at any point during Mr Trump’s first term, aside from December 2020, after he had lost re-election.

Mr Trump’s declining marks are no mystery. He was elected largely on kitchen-table issues and inherited a strong economy dogged by inflation worries. Presidents have few levers to improve the economy in the short-term. Yet since his inauguration, Mr Trump has appeared intent on finding the levers that might engineer the most disruption as quickly as possible. The administration’s initial evisceration of the federal workforce, and cuts to aid programmes that benefit farmers, directly affected some of his voters.

Then came the tariff rollercoaster. In the span of two weeks, Mr Trump unveiled a staggering salvo of tariffs on nearly all of America’s trading partners; backtracked on levies over 10% (except on China); carved out an exemption for Chinese-made electronics and seems content to negotiate and improvise day-by-day. On April 8th the S&P 500 closed 19% lower than its peak in February, before recovering. It is hardly surprising that some of Mr Trump’s supporters have lost confidence.

Will sagging polls slow him down? A self-described “Tariff Man," Mr Trump has acted from conviction and acknowledged that his sweeping levies might cause “some pain" for Americans in the short run, before reviving manufacturing jobs for the long term. Perhaps this belief will inure him to dips in his polling numbers. Mr Trump will not have to face the voters again, though he has mused about running for a third term, despite a constitutional prohibition. Yet his Republican congressional colleagues face a reckoning. Having built their winning coalition on the backs of economically frustrated swing voters, Republican congressional and state-level candidates will be particularly vulnerable if Mr Trump’s tariffs push inflation higher or cause a recession.

Mr Trump’s base remains enthusiastic about him. More than 92% of the Republican partisans who voted for him in November still view him favourably. But his re-election was secured by swing voters and infrequent voters, many of whom were disillusioned with the economy under Joe Biden. These pocketbook voters are more diverse than the traditional Republican base—Mr Trump made impressive gains with young voters and Hispanic voters, for example—and are not dyed-in-the-wool conservatives. According to the Cooperative Election Study, an election survey, 84% of the voters who backed Mr Trump in both 2020 and 2024 were white, 74% identified as conservative and 72% were over the age of 45. The new voters he attracted in 2024 were different: 65% were white, a mere 42% said they were conservative, and just 41% were older than 45. Should Mr Trump fail to deliver the economic boom he promised on the campaign trail, these voters could easily turn against him.

Already there are signs of this. The Economist’s analysis of YouGov data shows how these swings are playing out. Among Hispanic respondents, Mr Trump’s net approval is minus-37 percentage points, while among those younger than 30 years of age it is minus-25. Projecting these trends suggests how the very places that delivered Mr Trump his victory are now swinging against him (see chart). Our data suggest Mr Trump has a net negative approval rating in all six swing states he flipped away from Joe Biden in November’s presidential election (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin).

Mr Trump and his allies may be tempted to dismiss such signals as based on unreliable polls, but Republicans have seen worrying turns in voter sentiment this year at the ballot too, in special congressional elections and a hotly contested state supreme court vote in Wisconsin. In November, voters will head to the polls for gubernatorial and other statewide elections in Virginia and New Jersey, where The Economist’s analysis suggests that Mr Trump’s net approval has fallen to an estimated minus-11 and minus-14, respectively.

The biggest test will be the midterm elections in 2026, which will determine control of Congress, and with it the fate of Mr Trump’s agenda. During his first term, Republicans lost 42 seats in the House in 2018 and Democrats took control. At the time Mr Trump’s approval rating was around minus eight, slightly better than it is today, and voters were broadly satisfied with the economy. With a year and half to go, it is too early to forecast the headwinds Republicans may face this time. But incumbent parties rarely do well in midterms and the Republican majority in the House is razor-thin. Paradoxically, voters’ discontent with Mr Trump’s handling of the economy may be a bullish sign for American democracy. Partisanship may be at record highs but there are still voters who will cross party lines and punish politicians for hubris or folly.