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How Donald Trump upended the world in 30 days
Summary
- Donald Trump’s second innings as president is off to a stunning start. In just 27 days, he has issued 65 executive orders, more than any other president. And in some instances, the orders are testing the limits of presidential powers. Mint examines their impact.
Chennai: If Donald Trump’s political resurrection and return as the 47th president of the US was dramatic, his first few weeks in office have been extraordinary. Armed with a strong mandate, a governing ‘trifecta’ with control over the White House, Senate and the House of Representatives, and an absolute sway over the Republican Party, he is on steroids.
In his first month, he upended global trade with a rash of punitive tariffs on the country’s largest trading partners, rounded up and deported illegal immigrants, sought takeover of other countries and attacked bureaucracy like never before, terrifying thousands of federal workers. And that is not all. He has unsettled European allies through his efforts to end the Ukraine war and put paid to efforts to combat climate change.
Mint tries to make sense of his actions, and how it has made the world an uncertain place.
Record holder
No other president in the history of the US has issued as many executive orders as Trump has in the first 100 days in office. In just 27 days, Trump has issued 65 executive orders on a wide range of issues such as pulling the US from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization (WHO), ending birthright citizenship, declaring a climate emergency, pausing foreign aid and imposing trade tariffs. These orders, in some instances, are testing the limits of presidential powers, setting up a possible showdown with the judiciary. For instance, the abolition of birthright citizenship has been stayed by the courts.
The tariff man
Trump’s penchant for tariffs is well known. In his second term, he is taking it to an all-new level. He slapped 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico because these countries were allegedly flooding the US with drugs and migrants. He decided to keep it in abeyance after Canada and Mexico promised to expand border security. He has levied a 10% tariff on all imports from China and another 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports. He has threatened a 25% tariff on pharmaceuticals, auto and chip imports. Reciprocal tariffs were also announced, especially with trade partners who run a large trade surplus. Once these tariffs are implemented in April, world trade will be in turmoil. India will be impacted, too—Goldman Sachs, a global investment firm, estimates it at 0.6% of GDP. The biggest worry is that a global trade war may ensue.
Read more: Reciprocal tariffs really mean chaos for global trade
‘Terrible’ Powell
Even before these tariffs could take effect, inflation in the US is rearing its head, again. After dropping to 2.1% in September, it is on the rise and touched 2.6% in December. This forced the Federal Reserve (Fed) not to cut rates, something that Trump pushed for. An angry Trump lashed out at the Fed and its chairman Jerome Powell for doing a terrible job. Fed’s reticence is understandable. Trump’s tariffs are expected to increase prices for commodities in the US, which should further fuel inflation. Going forward, Trump, who has said he will not replace Powell, is expected to attack him more often.
Read more: Jonathan Levin: Trump fanned the inflation fears that haunt his presidency now
The saviour
One of the first executive orders that Trump signed was ‘Protecting the American People from Invasion’ to tackle excessive immigration. Since then, officials from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have been busy deporting illegal immigrants. According to official data, 8,768 people have been arrested as of 3 February and 5,690 of them have been deported. Media reports suggest that Trump is unhappy with these numbers—he would like over a million deported in a year. An analysis by Peterson Institute of International Economics, a think tank, stated that the US economy will shrink by 2.1% if 1.3 million are deported—essentially pushing the US into a recession. Worker shortage and consequent higher wages will also fuel inflation.
Read more: As Canadian dreams wane, a rude awakening for Punjab’s immigration economy
The imperialist?
William McKinley was a forgotten President (1897-1901) until Trump made him his hero—he renamed North America’s highest peak, Denali as Mount McKinley. The former president was known as the ‘Tariff King’ and was instrumental in passing a law that imposed 50% duty on imports of all manufactured goods in the 1890s. But, that is not why Trump adores him. He was also an imperialist and had added Hawaii and Guam to the US territory. Trump, in his second term, has already indicated his desire to take over the Panama Canal, buy Greenland, make Canada the 51st state of the US and own the Gaza strip, displacing two million Palestinians.
Read more: Trump wants the US to control Gaza. So, who owns it anyway?
The peacemaker
Trump had promised, if elected, to end the Ukraine war in a day. Not many expected him to do so but what has stunned global leaders is his approach to ending the war. He is talking directly to the Russian government, bypassing Ukraine and the European nations. Statements by his officials have raised concerns about Ukraine getting a raw deal. European nations have realised that the North Atlantic bonhomie [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the military alliance that protects North American and European nations’ security and freedom] is a thing of the past and they will have to fend for themselves. Some European leaders met urgently to discuss the issue but could not agree on anything significant.
Read more: Trump's attack on Zelensky signals new world order taking shape
The terminator
Even before the elections, Trump had announced plans for a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to cut down red tape, downsize the government and cut costs. He tapped Elon Musk, one of the most successful and richest businessmen, for the job. In the past few weeks, DOGE has, among other things, shut down government agencies, sent federal workers packing, and questioned various funding—including $21 million to boost voter turnout in India. But experts are sceptical about Musk’s main objective of cutting federal spending by $2 trillion. Of the $7 trillion budget, two-thirds go to mandatory expenses such as social security and health insurance, 10% to interest payments and 12% to defence. That leaves just 10% ($700 billion) of spending that can be trimmed. Musk, for his part, said that he is saving $1 billion per day.
Drill baby drill
Trump has delivered a double whammy to climate change mitigation efforts. He has pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement and worse, by declaring a national energy emergency, set the stage for a massive increase in domestic fossil fuel production. He wants to make the US self-sufficient in oil and gas and reduce prices. While that is expected to keep global oil and gas prices low—good news for large-scale consumers like India— efforts towards green energy will take a back seat.
MAGA vs MIGA
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi left for the US to meet Trump last week, many wondered if the latter’s ‘America First’ policies would impact India. The relationship has strengthened, and the two nations have set a $500 billion bilateral trade target by 2030. A trade deal will soon be negotiated. India has promised to deepen energy and defence trade. Nonetheless, it is not clear if these measures will help India avoid reciprocal tariffs that Trump has announced. Experts have asked a pertinent question: can MAGA (make America great again) co-exist with MIGA (make India great again)
Read more: Mint Primer | Will PM’s visit help India dodge Trump’s tariffs?
To read Mint's full coverage of the first month of Donald Trump's presidency, click here.
