Kim Jong Un wants to block all North Koreans from escaping. It isn’t working.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the Samjiyon City construction project in North Korea in this picture released on July 14, (Reuters)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the Samjiyon City construction project in North Korea in this picture released on July 14, (Reuters)

Summary

A recent rise in defections from the country’s protected classes are reinforcing outside assessments that Kim is contending with internal discontent that could ultimately threaten his grip on power.

SEOUL—Wanting to halt defections to neighboring South Korea, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has ordered the construction of new border walls, rearmed guard posts and installed more land mines. But North Koreans keep finding creative ways to flee.

The latest escape unfolded in spectacular fashion early Tuesday morning: A North Korean soldier, on foot, navigated the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone to his freedom. It was the first defection by an active-duty soldier since 2019. A U.S. soldier, Travis King, had more recently crossed over the DMZ, having done so last year before ultimately being released.

A recent rise in defections from North Korea’s protected classes are reinforcing outside assessments that Kim is contending with internal discontent that could ultimately threaten his grip on power. North Koreans are battling food shortages, a sanctions-hit economy and a further backslide in human rights. The regime in recent years has increased security and issued shoot-on-sight orders, deterring civilians from attempting to flee.

But those rare North Koreans with the means to leave are increasingly taking the opportunity. So-called elite defections, including diplomats and overseas students, have hit their highest number in years, according to South Korea’s Ministry of Unification.

The unnamed North Korean soldier crossed into South Korea on the easternmost part of the DMZ that stretches about 150 miles long and more than 2 miles wide. He is believed to be in his 20s and holding the relatively low rank of staff sergeant, local media reported, citing unnamed officials. The soldier likely had to wiggle around barbed wire, traipse past land mines and sneak past patrol guards. South Korean soldiers guided his final steps to freedom.

A military defection pierces Kim’s hopes of presenting North Korea as a powerful country and socialist paradise. The regime is sustained from a tight control on information, blind loyalty from the military and nuclear advances that deter a potential invasion. North Korea remains largely isolated from the outside world, with the exception of some allies such as Russia and China.

North Korean soldiers face harsh conditions in the military. Several soldiers have died from land mine explosions and heat-related illness, according to Seoul’s military, resulting from punishing work around the DMZ to add new barriers and land mines. In response to thousands of trash-filled balloons flown by North Korea, South Korea has cranked on loudspeaker broadcasts that blast everything from anti-Pyongyang propaganda to BTS hits and weather forecasts.

The growing discontent is clear, as North Koreans take extreme routes despite border controls, such as dashing across the border or taking a risky sea voyage on a wooden boat, said Kang Dong-wan, a former director of a resettlement support center for North Korean defectors.

“The border barriers are proof that the Kim regime is aware of internal discontent and wants to block defections," said Kang, who is now a political-science professor at South Korea’s Dong-A University.

Before the pandemic, more than 1,000 North Koreans relocated to the South every year. But just 105 have done so in the first half of this year, according to Seoul government figures. Fewer than 200 did so in all of 2023.

The dwindling number of escapes have relied on more unconventional routes. Earlier this month, a North Korean managed to cross over the western maritime border by foot, to a nearby South Korean island during low tide. Last year, a group of North Koreans crossed the maritime border in a wooden boat and a North Korean diplomat stationed in Cuba made a daring escape to South Korea.

Many North Koreans used to flee through China, crossing the border with help from brokers. But during the pandemic, new fences and watchtowers were installed to expand surveillance. Human-rights groups said China forcibly sent back hundreds of North Koreans to their home country last year.

Kim has made clear South Korea is the last place his people should dream of, labeling Seoul as the country’s No. 1 enemy in January, intensifying crackdowns on South Korean content and cutting all communication lines with its neighbor.

The North Korean leader’s shift in inter-Korean policy aims to refocus frustrations of the country’s woes toward South Korea instead, said Kim Yung-ho, South Korea’s unification minister. “The North Korean people’s distrust in the regime appears to be intensifying," Kim told lawmakers in June.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol revealed a new vision for unification last week, aimed at inducing change within North Korea as part of the national unification strategy. He vowed to get more outside information into North Korea while also proposing dialogue. North Korea hasn’t responded.

Yoon’s initiative to expand North Koreans’ access to information is closely aligned with U.S. policies that have pushed for the spread of democratic values, which Washington has long believed could put an end to dictatorships like the Kim regime, said Hwang Ji-hwan, a professor of international relations at the University of Seoul.

“The U.S. may view signs of regime insecurity as an opportunity for dialogue which would give Kim some legitimacy," Hwang said. “But in the current climate it’s likely North Korea will turn to Russia or China instead."

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