Mark Carney must keep an expansionist America at bay
Summary
At times during his campaign the bookish Mr Carney struck the pose of a defiant brawler. That is fitting for a former ice-hockey player—and someone preparing to go into battle on two fronts.
(This story was originally published on 10 March 2025)
As Mark Carney celebrated his crushing win in the race to succeed Justin Trudeau as leader of Canada’s Liberal Party—and thus soon become the country’s 24th prime minister—Canadians might have been forgiven for wondering which version of their former central banker they will get.
At times during his campaign the bookish Mr Carney struck the pose of a defiant brawler. That is fitting for a former ice-hockey player—and someone preparing to go into battle on two fronts. At home, he will need to convince Canadians to vote again for a Liberal Party that has been in power for a decade. An election could be called imminently, and the Conservative opposition has until recently been rampant in the polls. He will also need to best a foe not running in the election: Donald Trump.
In his victory speech Mr Carney said he believed the American president’s threat to annex Canada was credible. “The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country," he told his audience. “If they succeed, they will destroy our way of life." As a result, he said, Canada’s volley of tariffs on imports from the United States worth C$30bn ($21bn) would remain in effect until “the Americans show us some respect". As Mr Carney stood firm, Mr Trump swivelled, placing more tariffs on Canada and then removing them, all within 48 hours of Mr Carney’s victory.
In many ways it is remarkable that the normally undemonstrative 59-year-old is in a position to issue such fighting talk. Last July, five months before Mr Trudeau announced that he was standing down, a nationwide poll found that 93% of Canadians had no idea who Mr Carney was when shown his picture. Yet he won an astounding 86% of the votes cast in the Liberal leadership race. His party has enjoyed a Lazarus-like revival, too. At the end of 2024 The Economist’s poll tracker gave the Conservatives a 24-point lead over the Liberals. The gap is now just five points.
Mr Carney will be sworn in on March 14th. He will name a slimmed-down cabinet, then take a few days to decide whether he will let parliament reconvene as planned on March 24th, or dissolve it and call an election for late April or early May. Mr Carney has won his first bout handily. He will need fortitude for the brawls to come, against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Mr Trump.
