Our footloose index: the most attractive countries for graduates

The index is based on simple maths: what would be the net change in a country’s graduate population if footloose graduates could come and go as they pleased? To find the answer we analysed data from the Gallup World Poll, an annual survey of around 150,000 people from more than 150 countries and territories. The survey asks if people want to move abroad and, if so, where. As a proxy for talent, we considered only respondents who said they had completed an undergraduate degree.

By our estimates, between 2010-12 and 2021-23 the share of the world’s graduates who would like to move to Portugal tripled—the largest increase of any country in the footloose index (see chart 1). Our calculations show that in 2010-12, if all barriers to moving had been dropped, Portugal’s graduate population would have increased by just 1%. But survey data from 2021-23 show that it would swell by 120%, a gain of 1.8m.

Other countries in southern Europe have also become much more attractive to footloose talent. Between 2010-12 and 2021-23 the number of graduates that Italy would gain on net grew by a factor of six, to roughly 3m. And Greece went from losing educated people to potentially gaining around 400,000 of them.

Some countries have moved in the opposite direction. Notably, Britain ranked sixth in 2010-12 but sank to 20th after Brexit, and recovered only to 14th in the most recent surveys. Far fewer graduates from Europe now see Britain as appealing, and far more British grads say they want to leave. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have also fallen down the rankings, as a growing number of talented people in the Gulf now say they want to up sticks.

The top of our index has been more stable. Since 2013 the top spots have been held by Canada, Australia and America. In the most recent surveys Canada had the edge: we estimate that around 17m grads would move to Canada if they could. Accounting for the number of Canadians who want to leave, its net change would be 15m new graduates. In Australia it would be almost 9m. America would attract far more talented people than both (21m) but would also lose far more (16m), resulting in a potential net gain of just 5m.

Where do these would-be migrants come from? According to the Gallup data, Australia and America are most attractive to skilled workers in China. Canada is most attractive to Mexicans. Brazilians and Americans would make up the biggest flow of talent to Portugal. And vast numbers of graduates from rich countries such as America, Britain and Germany now say they would like to move to Italy and Greece. Spain has become increasingly attractive to graduates from South America, who are drawn to its better job opportunities, more stable government and Spanish, a common language.

In some cases, desirable destinations take advantage of their attractiveness. Portugal’s actual population of legal immigrants has risen from fewer than 400,000 in 2015 to more than 1m today. But not all countries are serious about attracting the highly skilled. Despite ranking third in our index, America has one of the world’s most dysfunctional immigration systems: some highly skilled migrants wait up to a year for a decision on work visas, and when a company applies for an H-1B (temporary work visa) on behalf of a highly skilled worker with a six-figure job offer, there is a 75% chance it will be rejected.

Italy, which has a right-wing government obsessed with reducing immigration, is likewise doing little to encourage the immigration of skilled workers. This is a wasted opportunity for a country that has an ageing population and sluggish productivity growth. Although the country has enjoyed some of the biggest gains on our index, data suggest it is still suffering from a brain drain. Alas, the movement of footloose talent is often impeded by governments.

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