The Arab world thinks differently about this Iran war
A new spectator sport with scary consequences
The social-media trend du jour in Lebanon is videos of ballistic missiles streaking across the night sky. The projectiles, fired by Iran at Israel, have been the dramatic backdrop for house parties, dinners out and even a few weddings. Some of the people sharing such clips are glad to see strikes on Israel, which waged war in Lebanon last year. Many others are simply relieved that the missiles are headed somewhere else. The latter is a novel feeling, not only in Lebanon but across the Arab world. A regional war has erupted—but for once, it does not involve Arab countries (at least not yet).
There has been little sympathy for Israel, which should be no surprise: its brutal tactics in Gaza over the past 20 months have turned even some of its onetime Arab admirers into sharp critics. Scenes of ballistic missiles crashing into Tel Aviv, Haifa and other cities have looked, to some viewers in the region, like a small bit of karma. What is less obvious, perhaps, is the lack of sympathy for Iran as well.
More on the war between Israel and Iran:
The Islamic Republic has spent decades arming and funding militias in Arab countries: Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, myriad others in Iraq. They were meant to serve as Iran’s forward defence, an insurance policy against Israeli or American attack. Over time they grew into uncontrollable forces: Iran’s militias assassinated scores of critics (including a former Lebanese prime minister), extorted billions from treasuries and carried out attacks on neighbouring countries, among them Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
For many in the Levant and the Gulf, Iran was a powerful and hated hegemon—until, suddenly, it was not. The ease with which Israel penetrated Iran’s security services has been a source of both confusion and glee in the region. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the vanguard of Iranian power, dug its hooks into Arab countries; ironically, it failed to notice as Israel did the same in its backyard.
Nowhere is the Schadenfreude stronger than in Syria, which has just emerged from a decade-long civil war against Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Mr Assad, who fled the country in December, could not have endured for so long without help from Iran, which sent the IRGC and allied militias to prop up his regime.
Some of the Iranian commanders assassinated by Israel on June 13th played a central role in the Syrian war, which killed more than half a million people. Syrians were quick to celebrate their demise. One man brought a box of sweets to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, which has been shuttered since Mr Assad fled. Another joked that it was probably the only safe bit of Iranian territory—because it was empty. After a decade of brutality, it is hard for anyone to begrudge Syrians such morbid humour.
For most, though, this is war as a spectator sport. At the onset of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Menachem Begin, the Israeli prime minister, famously wished both sides good luck. One hears similar sentiments from Arab audiences today: social media is full of jokes about setting out snacks and drinks to watch “the match" each evening, as Israel and Iran trade fire.
The tone is rather different on pan-Arab news channels. Al-Jazeera, the Qatari-funded broadcaster, has been broadly sympathetic to Iran in its coverage. That is easy to understand: The channel is hostile to Israel, and Qatar has long tried to maintain cordial relations with Iran, with which it shares ownership of the enormous South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf. But the tone has also been unexpectedly measured on Saudi-run outlets. Ideology is not a factor there. The Saudis have long viewed Iran as their arch-nemesis. Three years ago, when Iran erupted in protest against the regime, their media outlets covered the unrest eagerly: even small demonstrations in far-flung villages became breaking-news items.
Today, though, the Saudis are worried about antagonising their regional neighbour, lest Iran blame the kingdom for egging on the war and decide to attack it (as it did in 2019). Staff have been told not to air hawkish Israeli voices or dwell on the vulnerability of Iran’s regime. Should the regime fall, though, the tone in the Gulf might flip: Saudi deference to Iran is tactical, not heartfelt.
The war in Iran has erased any lingering doubt in the region about Israel’s regional hegemony. “Israel is scary and powerful, and it confirms day after day that it is a master on the military and intelligence levels," wrote Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati academic who is one of his country’s most outspoken critics of Israel. Yet its growing strength is a source of growing concern, even in countries like the UAE, Israel’s closest Arab ally.
Israel has shown itself able to smash its foes—first the Arab ones, now the Persians. But it seems uninterested in working with friends to build a more stable regional order. The war in Gaza is still grinding on, a source of misery for Palestinians and anger across the Arab world. The war in Iran risks drawing in other countries. “[Israel] becomes the main source of instability in the region, a position it used to share with Iran," frets Mohammed Baharoon, an analyst in Dubai. Gulf states, in particular, want stability and calm; Israel seems to offer anything but.
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