The Israel-Iran war is now a brutal test of staying power
Both sides have prepared for an air and missile war for decades
IN TEL AVIV and Tehran rescue crews are looking for survivors in piles of rubble. The missile and air war that Israel and Iran have spent decades planning for has come, and it is spectacular and terrifying. Israeli officials say they need at least two weeks to degrade Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. That means the struggle ahead is a test of staying power for both countries. Yet even then Israel may need America to deliver a knockout blow to Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites. For Israel, the coming days are all about momentum: if it maintains an aura of success it may be able to draw in President Donald Trump. But if the pace of damage to nuclear sites slows and casualties spiral, he may push to end the war before Israel has achieved its aims. A hasty ceasefire could leave Iran with a huge incentive to rush to restore its nuclear programme.
Israel has launched hundreds of air strikes since the early hours of June 13th. Iran has responded with salvoes of ballistic missiles and drones, although only a handful have penetrated Israel’s defence systems. Israel’s official objective is “removing an existential threat" from Iran’s nuclear programme and ballistic missiles. It has prioritised striking Iranian headquarters, the homes of generals and missile-launchers, and achieving air dominance over Iran. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, has said the “road to Tehran has been opened".
Yet crucially the damage done to Iran’s nuclear sites so far is limited. Three days into the war, only two main sites have been hit, in Natanz and Isfahan, along with some minor ones. Israeli analysts assess the IDF has at most hit a third of the nuclear programme, which would set it back by months, not years. Israel has yet to attack underground nuclear facilities, including the large uranium-enrichment plant in Fordow (though there have been Israeli strikes above ground at Fordow). Israeli officials say this will take place soon. But Israel may lack sufficiently powerful “bunker-buster" bombs to totally destroy the subterranean enrichment plants.
Another 10-20 days of bombardment will test the resilience of both societies. They have obvious things in common: a tradition of learning and science and being non-Arab nations in an often inhospitable Arab-dominated region. They were allies until Iran’s Islamic revolution in 1979. Less well known is that their military strategies both reflect missile wars with Iraq. In the Iran-Iraq conflict of the 1980s the “War of the Cities" saw Iraq launch Soviet Scuds at Tehran and other cities, eventually forcing Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran’s then leader, to “drink from the poisoned chalice" and sign a ceasefire agreement in 1988. Later, during the Gulf war in 1991 Iraq’s leader, Saddam Hussein, ordered Scuds to be fired at Israel.
Iran’s large arsenal reflects this legacy: its home-grown industry was jump-started by Libya and North Korea and can build thousands of missiles each year. Iran also launched a nuclear programme, with uranium-enrichment plants built deep underground in bunkers in the 2000s. Israel, meanwhile, invested in its own missile-defence systems and acquired from America squadrons of fighters which were modified with additional fuel-tanks and electronic-warfare systems, enabling them to carry out long-range strikes. Israel required all new homes to have at least one room capable of serving also as a reinforced bomb-shelter.
These respective arsenals are now being unleashed by each side with devastating consequences. Israel’s staying power is partly a question of defending the homeland: in the first 48 hours of the war Iran launched around 300 missiles and 150 drones towards Israel. Most were intercepted by Israel, with help from American forces in the region. The handful that got through destroyed dozens of buildings, killing at least 14 people, and damaged Israel’s main military headquarters, in Tel Aviv, and an oil refinery in Haifa, in the north. The physical damage is less bad than expected. The financial bill is huge: Israel’s wars since October 2023 have cost around $85bn, but this was before the latest stage with Iran. An economist advising the government puts the direct costs of jet-fuel and munitions for the war against Iran at around $300m a day: “This government is prepared to pay whatever price for the war in Iran, including depleting the reserves and putting Israel in debt for generations to come." Much now depends on Israel’s capability to destroy Iranian missile-launchers before Israel’s stockpiles of interceptor missiles are depleted.
Iran, meanwhile, had 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel when the war began, according to Israeli intelligence. Many have now either been fired or destroyed by Israel, but the Iranians will almost certainly retain enough, stored underground, to keep landing blows on Israel each night. It is still possible Iran achieves a spectacular hit on Israel that either kills many civilians or destroys a strategic site. Yet the rate of attrition inside Iran will be worse, with the gradual destruction of most of its missile and nuclear infrastructure looming. It entered the war at a strategic disadvantage. Its proxy, Hizbullah, was crippled by Israeli strikes last September. Iran faces an economic crisis, making its leadership vulnerable to internal unrest. Israel has also bombed two civilian fuel plants, indicating it could push that wobbly economy over the brink.
At a minimum Israel’s leaders believe this pressure may force Iran’s leaders to consider a deal with Mr Trump, in which it would be forced to dismantle what remains of its nuclear and missile programmes. To raise the temperature Israel is playing up the prospect of internal unrest in Iran that could endanger Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and his inner circle and even the entire regime. While Israeli officials say regime change is not an objective, on June 13th Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, addressed the Iranian people, saying “this is your opportunity to stand up" to a system “which has oppressed you for almost 50 years".
But these Israeli hopes for capitulation or regime change may not be realistic. “The regime’s survival is the utmost concern of the supreme leader," says Raz Zimmt, of Israel’s National Institute for Strategic Studies. “But at the same time, he sees Iran’s nuclear capability, especially uranium enrichment, as a cornerstone of that survival. Having to choose between them is like choosing between two chalices of poison." Without capitulation or regime change in Iran, Israel’s war makes sense only if it can set back the nuclear programme by years. “Iran can’t beat Israel, but Israel probably doesn’t have the capabilities to entirely destroy Iran’s nuclear programme either," says Amos Yadlin, former chief of Israel’s military intelligence.
Whether America, which does have the necessary bunker-busting bombs, will join the fight, is unclear. Speaking on June 15th Mr Trump sat on the fence: “We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved." Israel’s war is going better than it expected. It could yet get American military help. But if it does not it will need another way to end the war it has started. As Mr Yadlin puts it, alongside the military campaign “we also need a diplomatic exit-strategy, and Netanyahu hasn’t been adept at devising one of those."
topics
