The race to save Germany
Summary
Voters give the center-right a chance to govern, but the AfD lurks to take advantage of failure.Germans voted for change Sunday, and the most important questions now facing their country—and Europe—are whether and how quickly they’ll get it.
Exit polls confirm what most analysts expected: The winner is Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister the CSU. The likely vote share of about 29% marks a four-point improvement on his party’s result under a different leader in the last election in 2021. This is partly a vindication of Mr. Merz’s efforts to abandon the woolly centrism of former Chancellor Angela Merkel and offer voters real policy contrasts with the left.
The other big winner is the Alternative for Germany (AfD), on track to win about 20%. This doubles the party’s vote share from 2021, despite serious concerns about Nazi sympathies among some of its leaders.
It’s not hard to see why Germans grow more willing in each election to take a risk on such a party. The country is entering its third year of recession as disastrous energy policies and high-tax, high-regulation welfare statism cripple the economy. Voters also are fed up with Germany’s immigration failures. This election centered on the fiscal and social costs of welcoming hundreds of thousands of Middle Eastern migrants, especially amid high-profile crimes and suspected terror attacks.
Only the AfD has called consistently for rethinking green fixations and immigration policies. Mr. Merz staunched defections from his party to the AfD this time with parliamentary maneuvers to show he’d pass serious immigration limits. But his party remains divided on reform of green policies, many of which Ms. Merkel introduced. Time is short to prove he can deliver as Chancellor. The Christian Democrats’ vote share is far below what the party won in previous decades. To govern, Mr. Merz will have to form a coalition with at least one of the election’s losers.
One partner could be the Social Democrats (SPD) of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, although with a 16% vote share (down nearly 10 points from 2021) that party has been repudiated. Less likely, and less desirable, would be a coalition with the Greens, whose 12%-13% vote share is down slightly from 2021. Convincing either party of the left to go along with the economic and immigration reforms voters are demanding could be a challenge.
Such balky coalitions are necessary because no mainstream party is willing to form a coalition with the AfD, though a Christian Democrat-AfD coalition could govern from the right. Despite what you’ve heard from Elon Musk and JD Vance, the AfD is an anti-American, pro-Russian party. Some 80% of German voters, including the 29% who chose Mr. Merz, don’t support the AfD. The pro-American Mr. Merz could use U.S support, not a tariff barrage.
All of this underscores the urgency of Mr. Merz’s mandate. His relative success on a platform of economic reform and immigration control proves voters are willing to give mainstream parties another chance. The AfD’s surge suggests those chances may not survive another governing failure.
