The rich country with the worst mobile-phone service
Summary
Over the past three years data usage on mobile devices has doubled as people stream films and play games.BRITAIN HAS long been a pioneer in telecoms. In 1837 it built the world’s first commercial telegraph; the first transatlantic call was placed from London in 1927; in 1992 a British programmer sent the world’s first text message to a mobile phone. Today it lags rather than leads. According to figures provided to The Economist by Open Signal, a research firm, Britain ranks 46th for download speeds out of the 56 developed and developing countries for which there are data (see chart). That makes it the worst mobile service in the rich world.
Some of that is due to demand. Over the past three years data usage on mobile devices has doubled as people stream films and play games. The busiest parts of cities often lack mobile reception because the system is at capacity. Mainly it is an issue of supply. British users spend only 11% of their time on 5G, the fifth generation of networks, which offers speeds up to ten times faster than 4G. That puts the country 43rd out of the 56 countries. This lacklustre performance is caused by a combination of government U-turns, insufficient investment and sclerotic planning.
First, the U-turns. Until 2020 Britain’s four mobile operators were enthusiastic buyers of 5G equipment manufactured by Huawei, a Chinese firm; the British government was satisfied that Huawei’s kit would not offer a backdoor for surveillance by the Chinese Communist Party. But after intense lobbying from America, Britain’s politicians reversed course: telecoms operators must now remove all of their 5G Huawei equipment by 2027.That is likely to have delayed 5G’s roll-out. The country’s four mobile providers—BT/EE, O2, Three and Vodafone—have spent about £2bn ($2.6bn) over the past four years ripping out and replacing Huawei equipment.
Second, the need for more investment. About 90% of Britain’s 5G signals are broadcast from bolt-ons to the existing 4G network. This “non-stand-alone" version of 5G does not allow “network slicing", a way of enabling greater capacity in congested areas, or the quick response times necessary to communicate with new technologies such as self-driving cars.
A new “core network" using stand-alone technology will need to be installed to get the full benefits of 5G. Last year just 2,000 of the country’s 81,000 mobile base stations were broadcasting stand-alone 5G. The government has set a target of reaching 100% of the country’s population with stand-alone 5G by 2030. But, according to Frontier Economics, a consultancy, the four mobile operators are likely to invest only about £9bn of the £22bn-32bn required to get there.
A marriage might help. Vodafone and Three, the country’s third- and fourth-largest mobile operators, would like to join forces in order to compete with their two larger rivals. The firms say that they are too small on their own to justify the high capital expenditure of stand-alone 5G, and that they would invest £11bn over a decade if they tied the knot. Karen Egan of Enders Analysis, a consultancy, estimates that merger synergies would result in a 30% increase in overall network capacity.The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), an antitrust watchdog, is due to make a decision on the merger on December 7th; it has suggested that investment in 5G would need to be a legally binding condition of a deal.
Even if the CMA consents to the merger, improving 5G network capacity and coverage will mean erecting more masts. That presents another hurdle: Britain’s pesky planners. In 2022 the rules were loosened to permit masts less than 30 metres tall to be built without having to seek planning permission. Operators still complain. Smaller masts cover a smaller area, so more of them need to be built. O2 says that it takes at least six months to get a decision on a mast over 30 metres tall; applications are often stymied by local opposition.
Overcoming these obstacles is vital for achieving the goal of universal 5G by 2030. It will also be needed for the eventual roll-out of 6G. In laboratory environments the next generation of mobile networks has reportedly notched up speeds 100 times faster than 5G. Britain is anything but that.