The ripple effect Trump’s tariffs will have on the rest of his agenda

Here is how Trump’s latest tariffs, which include 10% levies on all imports and much higher duties on countries such as India, Vietnam and China, could affect other parts of his domestic agenda:

Inflation concerns

Curbing inflation was Trump’s central campaign promise last year. The swath of tariffs could boomerang on consumers because of how reliant the U.S. is on raw materials and manufacturing components from other countries, economists said.

At the grocery store, prices for seafood, cheese and alcohol are expected to rise because of how much is imported from Europe and Asia. The U.S. relies on other countries to make its clothes and shoes, fueling expectations for higher prices in that area as well. Some consumers are stocking up on products made overseas.

“There are so many multiplying effects and different supply chains behind the scenes that are hard to untangle," said Sanjay Patnaik, director of the Center on Regulation and Markets at the Brookings Institution. “We will only see the effects when the prices start to bite."

Consumers could see even more pain if Trump decides to remove an exemption for certain products from Mexico and Canada, a move that would likely roil the market for avocados, tomatoes, berries and other produce.

“The biggest concern is certainty more than anything else," said Andy Harig, vice president at FMI, a trade group representing food retailers and suppliers.

Trump administration officials and allies say any inflation caused by tariffs will be neutralized by their other policies, such as lowering taxes, slashing business regulation and increasing energy production. Some will be watching for price decreases in those areas in the coming months.

“If you don’t have that, then that’s going to be a big concern," said Sen. Jim Justice (R., W.Va.).

A factor that could help limit price increases: retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries that restrict U.S. exports. China said Friday it would hit back with 34% tariffs on U.S. products. If those measures help sap demand and economic growth, some economists say concerns will shift to worries about a recession.

Shipping containers are stacked on rails cars at the Port of Los Angeles. Some consumers in the U.S. are stocking up on products made abroad.

Drug prices

For now, pharmaceuticals are exempt from the so-called reciprocal tariffs on specific countries that Trump announced, but the administration is still considering separate levies on medicinal drugs as it tries to bring more production back to the U.S.

The existing tariffs could still roil the industry’s supply chains because China and other countries are big producers of the ingredients that are the building blocks of many pharmaceuticals. Generic drugs such as injectables that are mass produced with lower profit margins are particularly vulnerable and difficult to make in the U.S., meaning suppliers will likely have to increase prices or consider exiting from the market, industry experts say.

“Doing it with tariffs creates these other problems around potential drug shortages," said Tom Kraus, vice president of government relations at the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists. He is worried about more retaliation from countries such as China that cuts off U.S. access to crucial ingredients and materials.

Manufacturing

Trump has said the new tariffs and previously announced duties such as a 25% tariff on all imported cars will spur more manufacturing in the U.S. and boost the economy. He has touted spending commitments by companies such as Apple for hundreds of billions of dollars, but those plans face obstacles such as finding the workers needed and getting all the materials and energy.

Historically, retaliatory measures from other countries and high prices have eroded demand for U.S. products and hit domestic workers, limiting any potential benefit for the manufacturing industry.

Apple has moved parts of its supply chain from companies such as Foxconn to India in recent years to diversify out of China. But the broad duties from products from India mean the iPhone maker could get hit particularly hard by tariffs. Chief Executive Tim Cook notably won a tariff exemption for the iPhone during the first Trump administration.

Analysts estimate it would cost tens of billions of dollars and years for Apple to move even a sliver of its intricate supply chain in Asia to the U.S.

Data centers

Trump has said he wants to dominate artificial intelligence to protect U.S. national security and become a leader in an important industry of the future. That goal rests on data centers, which require vast amounts of building materials such as steel and aluminum and imported computer chips, all of which are expected to get much more expensive. Trump has said his administration is also working on new tariffs on chips, which also got an exemption from the reciprocal-country tariffs for now.

A fast pace of data-center construction is critical to the U.S. staying ahead of China in the AI race, experts say. China is behind in producing advanced chips and models but has historically raced ahead in critical industries by rapidly building infrastructure with government funding.

“This is just going to add costs at the very moment we’re trying to build as quickly and as broadly as we can," said Vivek Chilukuri, senior fellow focused on technology at the Center for a New American Security, a national-security think tank. “That’s just not helpful for our AI leadership."

Energy

Trump moved to exempt energy products from his reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday—and when he slapped 25% tariffs on Canada over fentanyl smuggling, he only applied 10% duties to energy products.

But a critical sector of the energy industry is still feeling some pain: liquefied natural gas, which is essential to the president’s “energy dominance" strategy that seeks to spread U.S. gas to markets around the world.

While Trump exempted natural-gas imports from the reciprocal tariffs, he didn’t include a carve-out for many of the components being used to construct multibillion-dollar LNG export facilities, four of which are planned for the Gulf Coast. There remain open questions about whether the administration will grant exemptions for specialized components for these facilities, said an industry official, many of which are currently manufactured overseas.

Write to Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com and Gavin Bade at gavin.bade@wsj.com