Triple trouble for Israel as its furious allies bail
Netanyahu has a lethal addiction to crises
YOU MIGHT think it would be impossible for the inferno in Israel and Gaza to burn hotter. Yet Binyamin Netanyahu is fuelling three parallel emergencies; a humanitarian one in Gaza, a torching of support among European allies and a constitutional crisis over who controls the security services, army and courts. The pressure on Israel and its institutions is almost unbearable and a culminating moment is probably imminent. But whether that comes in the form of a re-invasion of Gaza which finally ruptures Israel’s alliances and fractures its armed forces and society, or through a U-turn or ceasefire that triggers the prime minister’s political demise, remains dangerously unclear.
Start with Gaza, where the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) are poised to launch the main phase of a devastating new campaign. They control around a third of the strip and strikes are inflicting a daily toll: 30 Gazans were killed on May 25th, according to the Hamas-run authorities. Under the plan the IDF would retake 75% of it, pushing 2m people into zones with 25% of the land. The goal is to eradicate Hamas once and for all.
The probable outcome is a further humanitarian catastrophe. To counter that charge Israel’s government says it can get aid to Gazans without giving Hamas tacit control of it. On May 26th Israel launched a distribution network, using “hubs" to hand out weekly rations. The next day thousands of hungry people mobbed the area and work was suspended. Aid groups say the plan is woefully insufficient. Jake Wood, the head of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which runs the network, has just resigned, citing the principles of “humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence".
The strikes and apparent futility of any re-invasion are causing a rethink in Europe, which has been broadly supportive of the war against Hamas following the atrocities of October 7th 2023. Britain has suspended talks on a new trade deal and 17 members of the EU, Israel’s largest trade partner, want to re-examine their association agreement. On May 27th Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, called the civilian deaths “abhorrent". On the day before Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor and a staunch supporter of Israel, said “the current level of attacks on Gaza can no longer be justified." Germany may limit military exports or restrict their use: it sold 33% of Israel’s arms imports during 2020-24. That would mark a huge shift for Israel’s indispensable European ally. Even the White House is queasy. On May 25th President Donald Trump said he would like “to stop that whole situation as quickly as possible". He is keen to try to strike a deal between America and Iran.
As Gaza starves and allies bail, Mr Netanyahu is throwing petrol on a third crisis: a constitutional crunch with the security services, army and courts. He says he will appoint a messianic general as chief of the Shin Bet, the domestic-security service. Along with the IDF Mr Netanyahu has tried to blame it for being caught unawares by Hamas. Ronen Bar, the outgoing Shin Bet boss, has accused Mr Netanyahu of dodging his own responsibility, of trying to get the service to do his political dirty work and of firing him to cover up allegations of corruption within the prime minister’s office. After a battle in the Supreme Court, which ruled in his favour, Mr Bar will step down of his own accord on June 15th.
The replacement is Major-General David Zini, an infantry commander who will thrill the prime minister’s hard-right base. Even his IDF comrades see him, a scion of a nationalistic-rabbinical family, as messianic. Recently he warned of “the intention of bad Muslims to kill good Jews ever since Ishmael was born and until further notice" (some Jewish traditions name Ishmael, the eldest son of the biblical patriarch, Abraham, as the forefather of the Arabs). In a meeting of the IDF general command, he is reported to have opposed any prisoner exchange with Hamas since “this is an eternal war". As Shin Bet chief he would have a role in authorising which Palestinians Israel would release. His position on the war runs counter to that of most Israelis, who want a ceasefire and release of the remaining 20-odd living hostages.
The attorney-general, Gali Baharav-Miara, had told the prime minister that before replacing Mr Bar he must wait for legal guidelines, but Mr Netanyahu has ploughed ahead. The Shin Bet is tasked with protecting Israel’s leaders. Mr Netanyahu is on trial for charges of bribery and fraud, which he denies, and is set to be cross-examined for the first time in a few weeks. He has in the past tried to get the Shin Bet to limit his court appearances for “security reasons". A new chief may be amenable to such requests.
The episode is sowing discord between Israel’s security chiefs. The prime minister did not inform the IDF chief of staff, Lieutenant-General Eyal Zamir, of the appointment of General Zini, a serving officer. On May 25th General Zamir put out a pointed statement that “this is not an endless war". He has clashed with the government, arguing that the survival of the hostages and the supply of food should take priority over hitting Hamas. Even if legal obstacles force Mr Netanyahu to back down on the Shin Bet, he is eager to have this fight in order to distract Israelis, exhausted from war, and rally his base, with another showdown between his hardline government and the legal establishment.
The prime minister knows his unpopular expansion of the war in Gaza is likely to fail to achieve its objectives and prompt a schism with Europe and probably America, too. He knows, too, that the alternative, a ceasefire, is likely to end his partnership with the far right, which demands the perpetual occupation of Gaza, and trigger elections. With no way out Mr Netanyahu’s solution is to ignite ever more crises. He thinks he can come out on top but risks sitting on a hill of ashes.
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