Trump can make Russia pay for peace in Ukraine
Summary
As Moscow lets the war drag on, Washington should step up the pressure, including sanctions, on the beleaguered Russian economy.
Russia wants the Ukrainian peace talks to fail and the U.S. to cut off aid to Ukraine and walk away. President Trump finally appears to understand Vladimir Putin’s thinking, musing on Truth Social that “maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along." That is exactly what Mr. Putin is doing. If the Trump administration wants a Ukraine deal, it must raise the costs on Russia.
Moscow’s negotiating strategy in Ukraine is similar to the strategy it adopted during the Syrian war: drag out the peace talks, wait for the other side to become so frustrated with diplomacy that its leaders walk away, and ramp up the war. The Taliban successfully used the same strategy in Afghanistan with the Biden administration. But Moscow doesn’t hold all, or even most, of the cards. It has at least two vulnerabilities that Mr. Trump can exploit.
The first is Russia’s economy, which Mr. Trump hinted at when he suggested in the same online post that Russia could “be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions.’ " Russia is grappling with inflation, labor shortages, brain drain and limited paths to economic growth. The country’s economy is perilously exposed in oil and gas, which make up between 30% and 50% of Russia’s total federal budget revenue.
Increased sanctions against Russia’s energy sector would likely cause significant pain. Energy sanctions could be combined with sanctions against other Russian exports, such as minerals, metals, agricultural goods and fertilizers. Some members of Congress, led by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D., Conn.), have suggested putting massive tariffs on imported goods from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products.
A second Russian vulnerability is the blood cost of a protracted war. The Russian military has performed dreadfully on the battlefield since it began its current offensive last year. Russian ground forces have taken only a tiny amount of Ukrainian territory in the past year, mostly in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia’s average rate of advance has been slower than the most grueling battles of World War I, including the Franco-British offensive during the 1916 Battle of the Somme, according to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Even worse for Moscow, its soldiers have died in extraordinary numbers. Since February 2022, Russia has likely sustained more than 900,000 total casualties, including more than 172,000 killed. Russia will soon pass the threshold of one million total casualties. CSIS estimates Moscow has lost more than three times as many soldiers in Ukraine as in all Russian and Soviet wars combined between the end of World War II and February 2022.
If Moscow continues to drag its feet, a U.S. decision to provide more weapons, intelligence and training to Ukraine would escalate Russia’s battlefield costs. U.S. Army Tactical Missile Systems, High Mobility Rocket Systems and other weapons systems and intelligence assistance have been devastating to Russia. And unlike the forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost no soldiers in Ukraine. American military assistance has also benefited workers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and other states who are making the weapons systems.
Yet despite Russia’s vulnerabilities, the U.S. has failed to wield either the economic or military cudgel. Without actual pain, Mr. Putin will drag the talks out, keep fighting and wait for the U.S. to walk away.
The U.S. abandoning Ukraine would dramatically tilt the balance of power in favor of Russia and its allies—China, Iran and North Korea. China has provided Russia with military aid including computer chips, advanced software, drones and even Chinese mercenaries. Iran has supplied drones, artillery shells, ammunition and short-range ballistic missiles. North Korea has sent soldiers, artillery rounds, rockets, short-range ballistic missiles and other munitions.
These countries are also cooperating in other regions. Russia has supplied weapons and intelligence to the Houthis, an Iranian-backed terrorist group based in Yemen that is conducting attacks against the U.S. Navy, commercial ships and Israel. China recently provided satellite imagery to the Houthis for attacks.
Senior Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese government officials tell me that a Russian military victory in Ukraine would embolden China and North Korea in Asia. It also would signal American weakness. There is far too much at stake in Ukraine for the U.S. to walk away.
America holds most of the cards here. It needs to start playing them.
Mr. Jones is president of the defense and security department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
