IEA lifts 2024 oil demand forecast but trims 2025 projections

The Paris-based organization forecasts global demand to grow by 921,000 barrels a day in 2024 from 862,000 barrels a day previously, largely due to stronger-than-expected gasoil deliveries in OECD countries. Growth estimates for 2025 were slightly trimmed to 990,000 from 998,000 barrels a day.

This marks a sharp deceleration from the roughly 2 million barrels-a-day growth seen last year, now that the post-pandemic surge in demand has subsided and the rapid rollout of clean-energy transport technologies is tempering oil consumption growth.

“China’s marked slowdown has been the main drag on demand, with its growth this year expected to average just a tenth of the 1.4 million barrels a day increase in 2023," the IEA said.

Chinese demand fell by 70,000 barrels a day on year in September—the sixth straight monthly contraction this year. The agency said it expects the country to register demand growth of 140,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter and 190,000 barrels a day in 2025, below previous estimates of 220,000-barrels-a-day growth.

Total global demand is still expected to average 102.8 million this year and 103.8 million barrels a day the next.

The agency’s projections are still substantially lower than those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The group of oil-producing countries trimmed its forecast earlier this week for the fourth consecutive month, but still sees demand growth at robust levels of 1.82 million barrels a day this year and 1.54 million barrels a day the next.

Thursday’s report came as oil prices continue to be pressured by a gloomy demand outlook and prospects of a supply surplus next year. Brent crude currently trades around $72 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge, West Texas Intermediate, is around $68 a barrel.

Meanwhile, world oil supply rose by 290,000 barrels a day in October, the IEA said, as the return of Libyan barrels to the market offset lower Kazakh and Iranian supplies. Total supply is seen at an average of 102.9 million barrels a day this year and 105 million barrels a day next year.

Output from non-OPEC+ countries was mixed last month, with the U.S. reaching fresh records and Brazilian output falling short of expectations. Non-OPEC+ supply growth is still projected at 1.5 million barrels a day in both 2024 and 2025, driven by the U.S.

Meanwhile, production from OPEC+ is expected to decline by 820,000 barrels a day this year and to rise by 560,000 barrels a day next year.

Earlier this month, OPEC and its allies extended voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day until the end of December amid concerns over weaker demand and lower prices. The planned production increase—originally set to start in October 2024—had already been delayed by two months in September.

Crude output from OPEC+’s member countries rose by 25,000 barrels a day to 41.02 million barrels a day in October, as Libyan oil supply and exports returned to the market. Instead, Kazakh production fell and loadings of Iranian crude were curbed due to the risk of retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure by Israel.

Supply from OPEC+’s 18 countries subject to production quotas still stood 720,000 barrels a day above an implied target of 33.48 million barrels a day, including extra curbs pledged by Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan, according to IEA calculations.

Russia’s crude supply rose to 9.2 million barrels a day last month. Oil exports fell by 90,000 barrels a day to 7.3 million barrels a day, but commercial export revenue rose by $1.2 billion compared with the previous month partly due to higher prices.

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com