OPEC further trims oil-demand outlook
Summary
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries further trimmed its forecast for oil-demand growth, as it prepares to bring some barrels back into the market despite weaker global prices.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries further trimmed its forecast for oil-demand growth, as it prepares to bring some barrels back into the market despite weaker global prices.
The Vienna-based cartel now expects demand to grow by 1.93 million barrels a day this year and 1.64 million barrels a day in 2025, from 2.03 million and 1.74 million barrels a day previously. This marks the group’s third consecutive downward revision.
Demand is still seen at healthy levels overall—well above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels a day seen before the pandemic—bolstered by strong air travel and road mobility, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities, OPEC said.
The cartel trimmed its forecast of Chinese growth to 580,000 barrels a day this year from previous expectations of 650,000 barrels-a-day growth. Total world demand is estimated to reach 104.1 million barrels a day in 2024 and 105.8 million the following year.
Monday’s report came as oil prices erased nearly all gains made last week on persistent concerns over fuel demand in top crude importer China, after the country failed to provide details on the size of a stimulus package to revive its fortunes. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, currently trades around $77 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge West Texas Intermediate is around $74 a barrel.
Still, markets remain on edge waiting for Israel’s response to Iran’s missile barrage, fearing it might target oil infrastructure and potentially cause major disruptions across the region. The geopolitical risk premium to oil is, though, mitigated by the lack of material disruptions so far and OPEC’s ample spare capacity.
Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com
