Last man in, first man out? Top execs prefer to stay than jump jobs

Chaos over tariffs and conflicts has made many companies unsure of demand from clients and consumers, and senior executives sensing the uncertainty are choosing to stay put. This comes after a season of muted performance appraisals.

“The geopolitical crisis has led to subdued hiring in some sectors due to uncertainties, and this may continue for some time. People are wary that the last person in may be the first person out if these crises deepen," said Navnit Singh, chairman and managing director of executive search firm Korn Ferry India.

In the hiring pyramid, headhunters at the top find candidates for CXOs or top-level executives, followed by recruitment companies which place junior and middle management executives, and finally, staffing firms which provide workers for companies who remain on the firm's payroll.

“The hit could be on CXOs with generalist profiles who may not find jobs that offer anywhere more than 10-15% raise. However, if the role is of a specialist, firms will continue to pick them up at above-market rates," Korn Ferry's Singh pointed out.

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The hiring frenzy that began in 2021 cooled off by mid-2022, after companies realized that they had hired more than they needed. Layoffs followed, mainly in the IT and startup sectors. Though hiring picked up in 2024, it has remained muted so far. The advance of artificial intelligence, as well as the wars in West Asia and Europe, have clouded business prospects and dampened hiring.

Headhunters said candidates have become wary of sharing their resumes with more than one or two trusted headhunters. “They are now apprehensive that if any information about them wanting to switch jobs gets out, their current status will be in jeopardy. Job shifts are happening, but cautiously," said Pranshu Upadhyay, regional director for search firm Michael Page.

The hesitancy in the market is also reflected in multiple rounds of hiring interviews before a final decision is made.

“Even a year ago, we have closed positions in three months, but now, some executive searches take seven to eight months, followed by another three months of notice period. Among formal and informal rounds, both sides are looking for double surety, and hence, timelines get stretched," Upadhyay stressed.

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Many corporates completed annual performance appraisals in the last couple of months on the back of geopolitical crises, tariff disputes, and cautious client decision-making. For India Inc., Deloitte had estimated an average pay hike of 8.8% and Aon 9.2%. Some sectors like consulting have reduced promotions, while IT companies offered a mixed bag with reduced hikes and in some cases deferred them as well.

Not just CXOs, even those lower in the hierarchy are wary of jumping jobs. Alongside, the top decks are not gung-ho on hiring as they await clarity.

“In today’s geopolitical climate, professionals at mid- to junior levels tend to prioritize job security and stability. At the senior-most levels too, executives often become more cautious, evaluating roles not just for compensation or title, but for alignment with long-term vision, leadership quality, and the resilience of the business model," said Amit Agarwal, managing director, Singapore and India, Stanton Chase, said.

The indecision is apparent in sectors like banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI). “The BFSI sector hikes were lower than last year. Capital markets are largely down and the only segments that are seeing some uptick are alternative investment funds (AIFs), private credit, private banking and wealth management profiles. The poor visibility will keep the pace of middle and senior recruitments lower by 7-10% or so when compared to the same period last year," said Upasana Agarwal, partner, professional and financial services, ABC Consultants.

However, the one segment which is yet to be impacted is contract workers, since that is largely seasonal.

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