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PremiumSensex Today Live Updates : Indian shares set records, the rupee gained and bond yields dropped on Monday as exit polls indicated a decisive mandate and a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with investors eying public spending to maintain economic momentum.
The broader Nifty index rose as much as 3.59% to a record 23,338.70 points while the BSE index surged 3.76% to a lifetime peak of 76,738.89. By 0830 GMT, the markets had pulled back slightly and were trading up around 3% each.
The Nifty and BSE index have both nearly doubled in value since their close a day before election results in 2019.
The benchmark 10-year government bond yield touched 6.9421%, its lowest since April 8, 2022, falling 4 basis points from its previous close. The rupee strengthened to as much as 82.9575, its highest since March 19.
The 10-year edged up to 6.96% while the rupee was trading at 83.13 by 0830 GMT.
Weekend exit polls projected the alliance led by Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to increase its 303 seats in the 543-member lower house and likely get a two-thirds majority - enough to initiate amendments to the constitution.
A win had been widely expected but, if confirmed in the official results, the margin will be larger than analyst forecasts and will be seen as a positive for equity markets that have scaled record highs on the back of economic growth.
European stocks bounced and government bond yields dropped on Monday as investors looked forward to an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB), while U.S. jobs data kept the focus squarely on inflation.
The pan-European STOXX index was up 0.6% by 0850 GMT, while U.S. stock futures also rose.
In bond markets, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was down 4 basis points to 4.47% and German yields, which touched six-month highs last week, also dropped.
All focus was on the ECB, which is considered almost certain to trim rates by a quarter point to 3.75% on Thursday, which would make it the first major central bank to cut rates this cycle.
However a surprisingly high reading for euro zone inflation, out last week, further weakened the case for a rapid round of reductions. Markets now price in fewer than 60 basis points of easing now - meaning two 25-basis point cuts and less than a 50% chance of a third.
China's factory activity grew at the fastest pace in about two years in May, data showed on Monday. That extended the optimism prevailing in markets following Friday figures showing the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation held steady in April.
Markets also imply around an 80% chance the Bank of Canada will cut at its meeting on Wednesday and around 60 basis points of easing this year, though analysts are hopeful the easing will be even deeper.
Investors are a lot less dovish on the Fed, seeing little prospect of a move until September, though the odds of a move then increased after Friday's inflation data. They price in only a 50% chance of a second cut by December.
The outlook could change this week given data due includes key surveys on services and manufacturing, and the May payrolls report in which unemployment is seen holding at 3.9% as 190,000 net new jobs are created.
In Europe, focus was also on a downgrade to France's credit rating by Standard & Poor's, but the country's bonds showed little reaction.
Emerging markets were in focus, with India's rupee strengthening and the Mexican peso weakening following exit poll results from general elections in both countries.
Asian stocks rose on the back of the strong Chinese data, along with prints from Japan and South Korea, while Indian stocks hit record highs.
Gold was steady at $2,327 an ounce, having now rallied for four months in a row helped in part by buying from central banks and China.
Oil prices see-sawed after OPEC agreed on Sunday to extend most of its oil output cuts into 2025, though some cuts will start to be unwound from October 2024 onwards. Brent was last up 0.3% to $81.35 a barrel, while U.S. crude was up similarly to $77.21 per barrel.
Sensex Today Live : Indian benchmark indices opened at record highs on Monday, led by optimism about the incumbent government winning the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as indicated by various exit polls, combined with a better than expected GDP print for FY24 and positive global cues.
At opening bell, Sensex was up 1,894.7 points, or 2.56%, at 75,856.01 and Nifty was up 611.20 points, or 2.71%, at 23,141.90.
Sensex Today Live : "BankNifty would have the important support zone near 47,400 levels while a clear breakout above 49,600 zone would trigger for fresh upward move for next higher targets of 51,600 and 53,500 levels in the coming days.
Bankex maintaining above the 20 DMA level of 54,500 zone for most part of the session improved the bias with a decent close above the 55,500 level. With the indicators showing signs of improvement, it is expected to achieve the next targets of 56,800 and thereafter 57,500 levels in the coming days.
BankNifty would have the daily range of 48,300-49,200 levels, with Bankex support at 55,000 and resistance at 57,500 levels."
--Vaishali Parekh, Vice President - Technical Research, Prabhudas Lilladher
Sensex Today Live : "Nifty after making a higher top formation at 23,100 zone on the daily chart, it has witnessed some correction to slip towards the significant 50EMA zone of 22,400 level and currently is precariously placed before the election outcome event. A decisive breach above 22,800 zone shall improve the bias to some extent and thereafter, can anticipate for further rise while a breach below 22,150 zone shall weaken the trend overall.
Sensex has trading in the inside bar for the day, and the upper range of the rising channel is at around 75,600. A decisive close above 75,600 will strengthen the trend. The index would have the next targets of 76,500 and 77,000 levels, respectively, with near-term support maintained near the 73,500 zone. The support for the day is seen at 73,400/22,350 levels while the resistance is seen at 76,000/23,400 levels."
--Vaishali Parekh, Vice President - Technical Research, Prabhudas Lilladher
Sensex Today Live : Indian benchmark indices climbed massively at pre-open on Monday, led by optimism about the incumbent government winning the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as indicated by various exit polls, combined with a better than expected GDP print for FY24 and positive global cues.
Sensex was up 2,621.98 points, or 3.55%, at 76,583.29 and Nifty was up 807.20 points, or 3.58%, at 23,337.90 during pre-open.
Sensex Today Live : “Dalal Street is poised for a strong start to June, with Gift Nifty indicating a gap-up (+602, 23343) as bulls eye Nifty’s all-time high of 23,111, driven by optimistic exit poll results predicting a significant win for the BJP-led NDA. Key catalysts include India’s GDP exceeding estimates at 8.2% for FY24, a surge in Dow Jones by 574 points, increased odds of a September rate cut, early monsoon advancement, and a 10% rise in GST collections to ₹1.73 lakh crore in May. With both FIIs and DIIs being net buyers, Nifty and Bank Nifty are set to climb, with targets of 23,111 and 50,000+ respectively. Bullish stocks to watch include ADANI PORTS, SUZLON, JUPITER WAGON, GMR INFRA, and HDFC AMC. Suzlon (CMP 47) is recommended for accumulation with long-term targets at 53/59 and an aggressive target of 75."
--Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd
Sensex Today Live : APSEZ, Maruti, Hero Moto, Eicher, REC, Puravankara, are a few stocks likely to be in focus on Monday, 3 June.
Sensex Today Live : The Indian stock market is projected to open significantly higher on Monday, with the benchmark Nifty 50 poised to reach unprecedented levels. This surge is attributed to the optimistic Lok Sabha election exit polls, robust GDP growth in India, and favourable global market indicators.
Gift Nifty trends also suggest a gap-up start for the Indian benchmark index, trading around the 23,370 level. This represents a premium of nearly 660 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the domestic equity indices ended with slight gains, breaking a five-day losing streak. The Sensex rose by 75.71 points to close at 73,961.31, while the Nifty 50 increased by 42.05 points (0.19%) to settle at 22,530.70.
The Nifty 50 formed a long-legged doji on the daily chart, indicating a potential reversal of the recent downtrend. Subash Gangadharan, Senior Technical/Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities, stated that the Nifty’s rebound from near the 50-day SMA opens up the possibility of further gains in the upcoming sessions. For the bulls to take control, the Nifty would need to surpass immediate resistance levels of 22,654 - 22,706. Key support levels to monitor for a potential resumption of weakness are at 22,465 - 22,396. (Read the full story here.)
Sensex Today Live : Indian equity indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are poised for a significant rise on Monday, buoyed by exit polls predicting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s return to power for a third term. The BJP-led alliance is projected to secure a resounding victory in the Lok Sabha elections, a factor that has positively influenced investor sentiment.
Global cues have also contributed to this optimism, with Asian markets trading higher and US stocks ending last week on a high note. This follows a softer inflation measure from the Federal Reserve, sparking hopes of an interest rate cut.
Investors are now keenly awaiting the Lok Sabha election results due tomorrow. Other key events on their radar include the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), auto sales data, flow of foreign funds, domestic and global macroeconomic data, crude oil prices, and other significant global cues. (Read the full story here.)
Sensex Today Live : Indian shares are set to open higher on Monday with analysts expecting gains in infrastructure, capital goods and manufacturing stocks, after exit polls over the weekend projected a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government.
The Gift Nifty was trading at 23,353 points as of 7:05 a.m. IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 will open higher than its Friday's close of 22,530.70.
The Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex dropped about 2% each last week ahead of the election result, which is due on June 4.
Exit polls released on Saturday projected the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance will likely get a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house.
Indian stock futures jumped early on Monday and the rupee rose as exit polls pointed to a third term and sizable mandate for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whom investors hope will spend on infrastructure and manufacturing to keep economic growth going.
NIFTY 50 index futures were up about 2.7% in early trade and, at 23,350, indicated the index could touch new peaks when the cash market opens. Non-deliverable rupee forwards traded at 83.11 to the dollar, against a close of 83.46 in the spot foreign exchange market on Friday.
Weekend exit polls projected the alliance led by Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to increase its 303 seats in the 543-member lower house and likely get a two-thirds majority - enough to initiate amendments to the constitution.
A win had been widely expected but, if confirmed in official results due on Tuesday, the margin will be larger than analyst forecasts and seen as a positive for equity markets that have scaled record highs on the back of economic growth.
Asian share markets rallied on Monday as investors looked forward to a rate cut in Europe, and quite possibly Canada, as the next step in global policy easing, though sticky inflation threatens to make the process a drawn out affair.
There was also better news from China as the private Caixin survey showed a pick-up in its main factory index to a two-year top of 51.7 in May, from 51.4 in April.
Japan's factory activity expanded for the first time in a year in May, while activity in South Korea grew at the fastest pace in two years.
All of which helped MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan bounce 1.4%, having slid 2.5% last week. Chinese blue chips added 0.3%.
Japan's Nikkei rose 1.1%, after rebounding from one-month lows on Friday, while South Korea gained 1.8%.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday flagged the possibility of a vast amount of oil and gas reserves in the sea off the country's east coast.
Indian markets are waiting to see if Prime Minister Narendra Modi will expand his alliance's majority in parliament when election results are released on Tuesday, amid speculation this would lead to more economic reforms.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures climbed 0.9% and FTSE futures 0.7% as the risk-on mood spread.
Month-end flows saw Wall Street stage a late rally on Friday and left the Nasdaq up almost 7% for May. Early on Monday, S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, with Nasdaq futures adding 0.1%.
The prospect of lower borrowing costs globally has been generally positive for equities.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is considered almost certain to trim rates by a quarter point to 3.75% on Thursday, the first time in history it would have eased ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
However, a surprisingly high reading for euro zone inflationout last week blunted hopes for a rapid round of reductions and markets have 57 basis points of easing priced in for this year.
"The probability of back-to-back cuts now appears very low, putting the focus for a second move on September," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan.
"We suspect President Christine Lagarde will signal that the direction of rates is downward next week, but the policy statement will emphasize that future moves are data-dependent, and there is no pre-commitment to a particular rate path."
Markets also imply around an 80% chance the Bank of Canada will cut at its meeting on Wednesday and 59 basis points of easing this year, though analysts are hopeful the easing will be even deeper.
Investors are a lot less dovish on the Fed, seeing little prospect of a move until September and even that is far from a done deal.
The outlook could change this week given data due includes key surveys on services and manufacturing, and the May payrolls report where unemployment is seen holding at 3.9% as 190,000 net new jobs are created.
In forex markets, the Japanese yen remains the weakest of the majors, though the government is clearly prepared to spend big to slow its slide. Data out last week showed Tokyo spent 9.788 trillion yen ($62.27 billion) on currency intervention between April 26 and May 29.
The dollar stood at 157.09 yen, just off last week's peak of 157.715. The euro held firm at $1.0855, still benefiting from the EU inflation report, but faces resistance at $1.0895.
Gold was a shade firmer at $2,330 an ounce, having now rallied for four months in a row helped in part by buying from central banks and China.
Oil prices recovered from an early dip to push higher on Monday after OPEC agreed on Sunday to extend most of its oil output cuts into 2025, though some cuts will start to be unwound from October 2024 onwards.
Brent rose 38 cents to $81.49 a barrel, while U.S. crude firmed 39 cents to $77.38 per barrel.
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