As India braces for hotter days, Railways to add more coal rakes to avert power crisis

The average number of rakes deployed is expected to rise to 470 daily from last year’s 440 rakes, said two people in the know of the matter. One rake, comprising several wagons, can transport around 4,000 tonnes of coal. Railways serves as the primary mode of transportation for the fuel.

"Currently, around 415 rakes are transporting coal daily for power generation. With projections of high demand going ahead, there is largely a consensus that 469-470 rakes would be required in FY26, which the Indian Railways would provide," said one of the two people mentioned above.

Ministries of power, coal and railways have been consulting on the availability of coal and the logistics to meet the anticipated surge in demand. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has projected peak power demand to reach 270 GW this summer—significantly higher than last year’s record 250 GW.

The power ministry has estimated that domestic coal-based power plants will require 906.1 million tonnes (MT) of coal in FY26, higher than 874 million needed in FY25.  

In a written reply in Parliament last month, Union minister for coal and mines G. Kishan Reddy confirmed that the coal ministry had conveyed its plan to meet these requirements.

Coal supplies are monitored by an inter-ministerial sub-group comprising representatives from ministries of power, coal and railways, as well as the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Coal India Ltd (CIL) and Singareni Collieries Co. Ltd (SCCL). This group meets regularly to assess and manage coal logistics.

Despite ongoing efforts to transition to renewable energy, coal remains the backbone of India's power sector, catering to over 70% of the country’s electricity needs. With peak demand hitting new highs for the past three years, the government is looking to expand thermal power generation capacity to address immediate energy requirements.

Further, with the country bracing for an above-normal temperatures and more heatwaves this year, power demand for cooling purposes is set to skyrocket. In its latest weather prediction, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that the April-June period would be hotter than usual and more heatwave days are likely in many states, including Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu.

Northwest India might face double the number of heatwave days during the summer. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal across most regions.

Queries sent to the ministries of coal, power and railways remained unanswered till press time.

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Bracing for demand

Both residential and industrial electricity consumption have already started rising, with peak demand hovering around 220 GW currently. The government has been making efforts to manage coal stocks to prevent shortages like the one in October 2021, when coal reserves at power plants hit a low of 7.2 million tonnes—enough for only four days of supply.

As of 31 March, coal stock stood at 58.1 million tonnes, of which 54.4 million tonnes were at domestic coal-based plants. This is about 15% higher year-on-year and adequate for 19 days of operations.

"Stocks generally start declining post-Holi. However, this fiscal supplies would be adequate given that the production has also been at record levels," said the second person.

India's coal production hit the 1 billion tonne mark for the first time in FY25, which is expected to play a key role in meeting the surging power demand.

"Growth rate in coal supply to power sector was not at par with the rise in coal production. Coal supply rose by about 4% during the first 11 months of FY25 compared to 5.5% growth in production. Nonetheless, there has been an improvement in coal stocks at thermal plants over the past six months with the coal stock currently standing at close to 20 days for domestic coal-based power plants at all India level, indicating better logistical planning," said Vikram V., vice president & co-group head - corporate ratings, Icra Ltd.

"This is important in the context of the expected rise in electricity demand in the coming months with the onset of summer season. While there are few states facing coal supply constraints, the overall coal stock position remains satisfactory," he added.