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Mint Explainer: How has the monsoon been so far?
Summary
- After June saw deficient rainfall and July brought floods, August has seen another lull
The southwest monsoon, which usually hits the Kerala coast around 1 June, give or take seven days, arrived on 8 June this year. Rainfall in the June-September monsoon season drives the bulk of India's $3 trillion economy. It accounts for nearly 75% of the country's annual rainfall, which is crucial for agriculture, replenishing reservoirs and aquifers, and meeting power demand.
Over half of India's arable land is rain-fed and agriculture remains among the biggest employment generators. This year’s monsoon has been a rollercoaster, with June seeing deficient rainfall and July bringing floods to several regions. Over a fortnight into August, the monsoon has turned sluggish again. Mint explains how the monsoon has fared so far.
July ended with 6% above normal rainfall, compared with a 10% deficit in June. With this, the country recorded a satisfactory 5% above normal rainfall in the first half (June-July) of the monsoon season. Although August started with 7% above the benchmark long period average (LPA), current precipitation remains in the IMD’s ‘below normal’ category with 6% deficiency as of 17 August.
The regions that have suffered the most since the start of the season are the east and northeast, central India, and the south peninsula, all major contributors to India’s agriculture production, mainly in the Kharif season. The east and northeastern regions were the only ones with a rainfall deficit in July, receiving 32% below normal rains. Importantly, the southern peninsula region, which saw a 45% deficiency in June, was adequately compensated in July and had 5% above normal rain by the end of that month.
The rainfall deficiency in the east and northeast, south peninsula, and central India so far is at 20%, 13% and 4%, respectively.
Northwest India, on the other hand, is the only region that has been receiving normal precipitation since the start of the season. Rainfall here remained 9% above the LPA from 1 June to 17 August. The IMD predicted below-normal rainfall in August at 94% of the LPA, and normal rainfall (94% to 106% of LPA) in August-September), albeit “on the negative side of normal".
August and September together produce about 422 mm of rainfall, of which about 260 mm is expected in August. This could be due to El Nino, which is expected to gain strength over the monsoon season and disrupt rainfall in August and September.
