Mint Explainer: What falling total fertility rate will mean for India

It is already below the universally accepted replacement rate of 2.1 – the study estimated the rate at 1.91 for 2021. TFR refers to the average number of children born to a female throughout her reproductive lifespan (from 15 to 49 years of age). 

A survey carried out by the government had similarly estimated that India’s TFR was already below the replacement rate. The fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) carried out between 2019 and 2021 estimated the country’s TFR at 2, with the rate for urban areas at 1.6 and for rural areas at 2.1.

A declining TFR means fewer babies will be born in future, and that results in a slower growth of the population before it begins to decline. The article in The Lancet, based on a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a population health research organization based at the University of Washington School of Medicine, estimates that the number of live births in India in 2050 at 13.03 million, against 22.39 million in 2021. And, the numbers will decline further to 3.79 million in 2100.

Mint explains how the TFR impacts the demographic profile of a nation and its economy.

Why is TFR an important population metric?

Since it is an indicator of the number of children likely to be born to a female, it helps policymakers and demographers to make projections of how the population of a community, region and nation will change over a period of time. 

It is an important input for deciding policy interventions that will be required to alter the pace of population growth and also for planning for the creation of infrastructure and production of food crops.

It also helps countries estimate changes that would occur in the labour force and in deciding policies towards migrants. For instance, a region with high TFR will need to create more schools and education institutions to ensure that the coming generations are educated and skilled to contribute to economic development. 

A region with falling TFR and an ageing population will need to be more migrant friendly or may need to step up investment in healthcare for seniors.

What causes the TFR decline?

The TFR tends to fall with a rise in the education level of girls and greater participation of women in paid work. An increase in the number of years in school and enrolment in higher education delays the age of marriage, which then leads to a delay in motherhood. When the age at which a woman has her first child rises, there is a decline in the number of children she is likely to have.

The rising empowerment of women has lowered the TFR across the world. The cost of raising a child has also contributed to the decline of the TFR. 

The study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation notes that the global fertility rates have halved between 1950 and 2021 from 4.84 to 2.23. Global annual live births peaked in 2016 at 142 million and then declined to 129 million in 2021.

What does India’s official data say about TFR?

India’s TFR declined from 3.4 in 1992-93 when the first round of NFHS was carried out to 2 when data for NFHS-5 was collected. All states reported a decline in the TFR, and it is above the replacement rate in just a few states such as Bihar (2.98), Uttar Pradesh (2.35) and Jharkhand (2.26).

The NFHS-5 found that women without any schooling, on average, had 2.8 children compared with 1.8 children for women with 12 or more years of schooling. Falling infant mortality rates and urbanization have also contributed to the decline of the TFR.

Where does falling TFR hurt?

For nations with small population, a falling TFR is a cause for concern. This is because there will be fewer and fewer young people joining the labour force. A shrinking labour force can negatively affect the economic growth of a nation if it does not open up to allow immigrants to take up jobs for which it does not have enough workers. After all, machines cannot replace humans in many activities. Many European nations as well as rich East Asian economies such as Japan and South Korea are seeing their population shrink. South Korea’s TFR is below 1.

A sustained fall in the TFR will eventually invert the demographic pyramid of a nation – there will be more older people than younger ones. That poses another set of challenges including pressures on the health infrastructure and a decline in contributions to social security programmes.

The global study estimates that there will be just 49 countries with TFR above the replacement rate in 2050, and many of them will be in Africa. By 2100, only six countries are expected to have TFR above the replacement rate.

Are there any benefits?

A lower TFR can be beneficial too. As the population growth slows and eventually shrinks, the pressure on the earth’s resources will reduce. The pressure to grow more food could ease and carbon emissions might reduce.

Should India be worried about the falling TFR?

As the world’s most populous country, and a young one, a gradual decline in the TFR is desirable. India has been nudging its people to restrict the number of children per family to two since the early years of Independence. 

While the TFR has declined, the country’s population is set to rise for several more years before it starts shrinking. The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs has estimated that India’s population in 2050 will be about 1.67 billion.

Within the country, some states may see the TFR fall more sharply than others. But that’s unlikely to be a big worry as internal migration and mobility of labour would prevent labour shortages.