Mint Primer: Will the summer of ’25 break last year’s records?
Summary
- The Met department has forecast a spike in mercury in the coming days. Mint explains the forecasts and the likely impact on the economy and food prices.
Summer’s only just set in, but several states have already seen heatwaves as well as warm nights. The Met department has forecast a spike in mercury in the coming days. Mint explains the forecasts and the likely impact on the economy and food prices.
What is the state of play so far?
India officially considers March-May as summer. But this year, Goa and Maharashtra recorded the first heatwave in late February—still winter and a historic first. The Met defines a heatwave as when the maximum temperature in the plains is at least 40 degrees Celsius or five degrees above normal. In March, parts of Odisha, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana had heatwaves. This February was the hottest in 125 years. An analysis by the Centre for Science and Environment shows that during 11-23 February, night temperatures were higher than normal by 3-5 degrees at least once in 22 states.
What is forecast for the rest of the season?
The Met says above-normal number of heatwave days are likely over most parts of the country this summer. Night temperatures are also expected to be above normal. However, it didn’t say if the summer of 2025 will be worse than 2024, which was the warmest on record since 1901. However, experts are expecting up to 10% surge in peak power demand in May. Earlier this month, Boudh in Odisha recorded the season’s highest temperature at 43.6 degrees. On 24 March, the Met office said the maximum daytime temperatures could rise in the coming days by 2-6 degrees over most parts of India.
Can a heatwave impact food output and prices?
This year, the early onset of heatwaves seems to have spared wheat-growing regions. However, short-duration vegetable crops may be at risk as temperatures spike in April and May. Last summer, vegetable prices shot up by a staggering 27% in both April and May (year-on-year), pushing annual consumer food price inflation to nearly 9%.
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What about other economic impact?
A gruelling summer can fuel sales of air-conditioners, fridges, fizzy drinks and perfumes. A bottler for Coca-Cola told Mint it expects a 20% surge in sales this summer, while AC sales could see a 30% growth year-on-year. But for the millions who work outdoors and in factories, heatwaves can be devastating. India recorded over 40,000 heatstrokes last summer, while an analysis of news reports documented 733 deaths across 17 states. India could end up losing 5.8% of annual working hours due to extreme heat by 2030, says ILO.
Why do cities tend to get hotter?
It’s due to the heat island effect where densely constructed concrete structures absorb heat during the day and slowly release it at night. Plus, tall buildings do not allow the hot air to escape. Moreover, high temperatures coupled with humidity interfere with the natural process of cooling our bodies by way of sweating. And when temperatures do not drop significantly during night time, the body cannot repair and heal itself. The continuous exposure leads to heatstroke and internal organ failure, and can be fatal.
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