Team Biden Tries to Answer Davos Man’s Cry for Help

The Biden administration doesn’t want its allies and adversaries to think things are spinning out of control, so Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan dropped into Davos to reassure all and sundry that the Americans are on the job.

Mr. Blinken was at his diplomatic best, reassuring listeners that despite the occasional flare-up and awkward headline, the Biden administration has matters in hand. Russia is on the back foot, Kyiv is moving forward with economic and political reforms, and Ukraine’s reliance on Western aid will diminish over time.

Despite their differences, the U.S. and China are stabilizing their relationship and both sides are determined to ensure that their competition doesn’t boil over into conflict. As for the Middle East, Mr. Blinken says Israel and its neighbors are closer than ever to agreements that will achieve both Palestinian statehood and regional peace.

Most World Economic Forum attendees surely hope that Mr. Blinken turns out to be right about the state of the world, but the doubts one hears here about the wisdom and competence of the Biden administration won’t be easily laid to rest.

Take the Middle East. Speaking in February 2021 about the war that Saudi Arabia was waging in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthis, President Biden was clear. “This war has to end," he told the world. “And to underscore our commitment, we are ending all American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arms sales."

Roughly three years later, instead of supporting allied campaigns against the Houthis, the U.S. is attacking them with its own forces. Saudi Arabia, clearly enjoying the irony, is warning the U.S. against escalating violence in the region.

Last May, Mr. Sullivan pointed to the truce in Yemen and the restoration of Saudi-Iranian relations as part of the Biden administration-led progress toward peace across the Middle East. 

Four months later Mr. Sullivan trumpeted the success of the American peace initiative, praising President Biden for making “de-escalating and ending the war in Yemen one of his top foreign policy priorities." 

In the original, print version of a famously rewritten Foreign Affairs article, Mr. Sullivan hailed the administration’s progress in de-escalating crises in Gaza. These successes, Mr. Sullivan confidently predicted, would enable the U.S. to turn its attention to other hot spots like Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait.

That won’t happen now. While the Biden administration was congratulating itself on the intellectual sophistication and gratifying success of its Middle East policy, America’s regional opponents were preparing their next wave of attacks. They used the time well, and the U.S. finds itself confronting a multifaceted and sophisticated array of enemies across the region.

Mugged by reality, Mr. Biden has switched direction, relabeling the Houthis a specially designated global terrorist group and launching an escalating series of retaliatory attacks across the Middle East. 

Israel and Saudi Arabia are now the pillars of our regional policy, and the road to solving the Palestinian issue is seen to pass through Riyadh. Like his predecessor, Mr. Biden is now arming Israel while promoting the Abraham Accords.

Overall, despite the air of calm and continuity that both speakers sought to convey, the Biden administration has embarked on a significant change of course.

In January 2021, the view was that countering China needed to be America’s primary focus, while both Russia and Iran could be bargained with. Today, the administration appears to see China as the most reasonable and rational of its opponents, while Russia and Iran are, for the time being, less approachable. 

Washington is no longer looking to stabilize relations with Russia and Iran to free up resources for the competition with China. It is trying to cool tensions with China to give itself room to deal with Russian and Iranian threats.

Perhaps the new strategy will work, at least for a while. China’s economic troubles are serious and would worsen if tensions between Beijing and the West reached a crisis point. 

But China isn’t interested in helping the U.S. out of a tight spot. The most likely outcome is that China will continue supporting Russia and Iran and hope that the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to create difficulties for the U.S.

Messrs. Sullivan and Blinken gave intelligent and insightful presentations. They did not, however, dispel the geopolitical gloom that hangs over Davos this year. The world needs results, which Team Biden has yet to provide.