BackUS Election 2024: THESE 10 essential things to know before world's most excellent economy goes to vote
9 min read . Updated: 03 Nov 2024, 06:58 AM IST
PremiumUS Election 2024: The US presidential election will determine the next President and Vice President of the United States. This election is particularly significant as it follows a highly polarised political climate and comes amid pressing issues such as the economy, immigration, and climate change.
US Election 2024: As Election Day approaches on 5 November 2024, the competition between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is heating up, especially in vital swing states. Both candidates are making final pushes in what is shaping up to be a tightly contested presidential race.
Approximately 244 million people are eligible to vote in the upcoming US presidential election on 5 November. Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. in most states, although times may vary. In 2020, about two-thirds of these eligible voters participated. The outcome of the next presidential election will hinge less on the national voter turnout and more on a few thousand voters in key battleground or swing states.
Here is all you need to know before the world's biggest economy goes to vote:
Key Economic Indicators
Attention to GDP growth, unemployment rates, inflation, and consumer confidence, as these can influence voter decisions.
With the US presidential election comes closer, the economy remains a pivotal issue for voters. Earlier in October, a CBS News poll shows that six in ten Americans consider the economy to be either "fairly bad" or "very bad." This perception persists despite positive economic indicators, such as GDP growth and low unemployment rates close to pre-pandemic levels. Many citizens feel they are worse off than they were four years ago, highlighting a disconnect between economic data and personal experiences.
This sentiment is likely to play a significant role in shaping voter decisions in the upcoming election.
By various metrics, the U.S. economy appears to be on solid ground, with strong GDP growth and low unemployment rates. Notably, inflation has decreased to a three-year low of 2.4% as of September.
Despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to a 23-year high to combat inflation, the economy has managed to avoid a recession. Experts like Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, assess the economy's performance as exceptional, giving it an “A+.”
Major Issues
Kamala Harris has stated that her top priority from day one will be to lower food and housing costs for working families. She plans to prohibit price-gouging on groceries, assist first-time home buyers, and offer incentives to boost housing supply.
While inflation surged during Biden's presidency—partly due to post-Covid supply chain disruptions and the Ukraine conflict—it has since decreased. Trump has vowed to “end inflation and make America affordable again.”
Also Read: US Election 2024: Trump gains support from Indian-American, Muslim Democrat voters in Michigan
Additionally, he believes that deporting undocumented immigrants will relieve housing pressure. However, economists caution that his proposal to raise taxes on imports could lead to higher prices.
However, for Muslim voters in New York City, the main issue remains Gaza. According to a report by PTI, "There are plenty of issues, but I don't think anything comes close to what we are seeing in Gaza. There is a large part of the Muslim community that isn't feeling comfortable with the words and the actions of the candidates," said Ali, a corporate professional.
The situation in Gaza is among the top issues that the members of this influential voting bloc have been concerned with. Several of them clearly voice their disappointment on how the democratic government has dealt with the West Asia situation.
Candidates and their platforms
Kamala Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris, a former prosecutor and senator from California, has at times faced challenges in defining her role alongside President Biden. Initially tasked with addressing complex and polarizing issues such as illegal immigration and voting rights, she has been perceived by some Democratic donors and Biden supporters as a potential political liability, according to a post by New York Times.
Also Read: Harris tops Trump in latest Iowa poll, marking turnaround -Des Moines Register survey
While concerns about her effectiveness have somewhat diminished, Harris has continued to grapple with low approval ratings that remain only marginally higher than those of the president. This struggle to carve out a distinct and impactful role within the administration has contributed to ongoing scrutiny of her political standing as the election approaches.
Donald Trump
Former President Donald J. Trump is seeking to reclaim the office he lost in 2020, a loss he has persistently denied, even to the extent of inciting a mob of his supporters to attack the U.S. Capitol. While his influence within the Republican Party has been somewhat diminished, and he faces ongoing legal investigations from both state authorities and the Justice Department, Trump still maintains a large and deeply committed base of supporters.
In the 2024 primary, he has benefited from a crowded field of challengers, which has fragmented the anti-Trump vote and bolstered his chances of securing the nomination. This dynamic underscores his resilience as a political figure, even amid significant challenges and controversies.
Polling Trends
A recent New York Times poll of polls shows a razor-thin edge for Kamala Harris, with 49% support compared to Donald Trump's 48%. As the election approaches, Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is expected to play a crucial role, particularly since it has no clear partisan tilt. Current polling averages indicate that Trump holds a slight lead of 2% in Pennsylvania, while Harris leads nationally by 1.4 points.
Importantly, Harris appears to be performing better in Pennsylvania than Biden did earlier this year. According to a Morning Consult survey, which sampled 8,807 likely voters, Harris has a national lead of 3%, standing at 50% to Trump’s 47%. These findings suggest that voter sentiment towards Harris is improving, even as 49% of respondents report having heard negative news about Trump. The poll carries a margin of error of 1%, underscoring the competitiveness of the race as Election Day draws nearer.
Voter turnout and registration:
In the 2020 presidential election, 76 percent of registered voters in the county cast ballots, a notable increase from 71.65 percent in 2016. The early voting trend also saw a significant surge; in the March 2020 election, there were 901 in-office early voters, but this number skyrocketed to 9,198 for the November 2020 election, according to a report by Morning Journal.
Moreover, looking at the past records, the elections of 2018, 2020, and 2022 marked some of the highest turnout rates in US history for their respective types. Approximately two-thirds (66%) of the voting-eligible population participated in the 2020 presidential election, the highest rate for any national election since 1900. The 2018 midterm election saw a turnout of 49%, the highest for a midterm since 1914. Even the 2022 midterm election, which had a slightly lower turnout rate of 46%, surpassed the turnout of all midterm elections since 1970.
Swing States:
In the US elections, several states are commonly regarded as swing states due to their history of fluctuating between Democratic and Republican candidates. Here are seven key swing states:
Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia.
Election process
The U.S. Constitution sets specific requirements for a presidential candidate:
Natural-born Citizen: The candidate must be a natural-born citizen of the United States. This includes individuals born within the U.S., children of U.S. citizens born abroad, and those born abroad to at least one citizen parent.
Residency: The candidate must have been a resident of the United States for at least 14 years.
Age: The candidate must be at least 35 years old.
These criteria ensure that presidential candidates have a significant connection to the country and meet certain age and citizenship standards.
During the presidential election cycle, candidates from the two main political parties—the Democrats and the Republicans—embark on their campaign trails. They assemble their teams and begin touring the country to rally support and fundraise for their campaigns.
Also Read: US Election 2024: Here’s why nation votes in November but swears in new president in January
Each party holds a national convention to select their presidential nominee officially. When Americans head to the polls in November, they vote for both a President and a Vice President.
The Electoral College is the system by which electors, selected based on each state's population and representation in Congress, cast their votes to determine the President.
There are a total of 538 electors, and to win the presidency, a candidate must receive more than half of the electoral votes—at least 270. After the general election, each elector casts one vote, and the candidate with the majority of these votes is declared the winner.
Global Economic Impact:
The analysis suggests that a victory for Kamala Harris could lead to a more accommodating stance by the U.S. Federal Reserve, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ease interest rates domestically. This potential rate reduction would benefit Indian non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) by lowering funding costs and stimulating loan demand.
In contrast, if Donald Trump wins, interest rates in the U.S. may remain elevated, which would likely pressure the RBI to maintain higher rates and delay any potential rate cuts. This scenario could slightly favor public sector banks (PSBs) over NBFCs in India.
Also Read: What a Donald Trump win in US Election 2024 could mean for India – trade, strategy, and geopolitics
Additionally, a Trump victory is expected to bring significant changes to the U.S. global trade policy. Trump’s proposed “America-first” trade agenda includes implementing universal baseline tariffs of 10-20% on a majority of foreign goods and a four-year plan to phase out Chinese imports of key products. This shift could have far-reaching implications for international trade and economic relations.
Media Influence:
Ahead of the US elections 2024, a recent study from the Media Research Center (MRC) found that presidential race coverage between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris on ABC, CBS, and NBC News has been the most “lopsided in history.”
As per a report by Fox News, according to the analysis published just a week before the election, Harris has enjoyed 78% positive coverage since July, while Trump has faced 85% negative coverage on these networks.
“The difference in coverage between the two candidates is far greater than in 2016, when both Trump and then-challenger Hillary Clinton received mostly negative coverage (91% negative for Trump, vs. 79% negative for Clinton,)” according to MRC analysts, the report noted.
Timings:
Americans will cast their votes on November 5, 2024, and the winner will serve a four-year term in the White House, beginning in January 2025. Polling times vary across states, with the first polls closing at 6 p.m. ET in some counties in Indiana and Kentucky. The last polls will close at 1 a.m. ET on Wednesday, November 6, in Alaska, according to a CNN report.
Exit polls, which help gauge voter sentiment and predict outcomes, will start after 5 p.m. ET (2:30 a.m. IST on November 6). By January 6, 2025, Congress will officially count the electoral votes to declare the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. States are required to certify their results in either November or December following Election Day.
The electoral college voting process has previously been a source of unrest, as seen in January 2021 when supporters of Donald Trump stormed the Capitol following the last election. This history underscores the importance of the electoral process and the heightened scrutiny it will receive in the upcoming election.
