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India’s ties with Iran: What after Ebrahim Raisi?
Summary
- Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi, 63, and foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, 60, were among nine people killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday. Mint looks at the implications of Raisi’s death for India and the wider region.
Who was Ebrahim Raisi?
Raisi was a hardliner who won Iran’s 2021 presidential polls that saw the lowest-ever turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history. Raisi was on the US sanctions lists for several charges including his role in the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 at the end of the Iran-Iraq war. A protégé of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old Supreme Leader, Raisi was one of several contenders tipped to succeed him. From prosecutor general of Tehran in 1994 to chief justice of the country, Raisi had worn many hats. At another level, under Raisi, Iran enriched uranium to nearly weapons-grade.
What are the implications for India?
Raisi was a hardliner who won Iran’s 2021 presidential polls that saw the lowest-ever turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history. Raisi was on the US sanctions lists for several charges including his role in the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 at the end of the Iran-Iraq war. He was a protégé of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old Supreme Leader, and an expected one of several contenders tipped to replace him. From prosecutor general of Tehran in 1994 to chief justice of the country, Raisi had worn many hats. At another level, under Raisi, Iran enriched uranium to nearly weapons-grade.
What happens next within Iran?
According to news reports, first vice president Mohammad Mokhber, 68, was confirmed president by Ayatollah Khameini. A panel comprising Mokhber, the speaker of parliament and the head of the judiciary, must now arrange an election for a new president within 50 days. Internal stability will be a big focus for Tehran in the days to come.
What will Raisi’s death mean for West Asia?
Not much, as it is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Supreme Leader who look after foreign policy. Tensions spiked after Iran’s consulate in Syria was bombed. Iran fired a volley of missiles at Israel, which retaliated by targeting Iran’s Isfahan province that hosts a uranium enrichment plant. These tensions are unlikely to diminish especially if Iran elects another hardliner in place of Raisi. Analysts say that is a probability, if Tehran concludes that its security threats are mounting.
How will it affect ties with the West?
If a hardliner replaces Raisi, ties are unlikely to improve. Iran’s ties with the West are rocky over its suspect nuclear programme and its support to groups such as Hamas and Houthis. Talks with the West on removing sanctions over Iran’s nuclear programme stalled during Raisi’s term. India’s ties with Iran have been impacted by western sanctions especially those impacting its financial and oil sectors. Tensions with the West also rose after the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, detained for wearing a loose headscarf.
