Mint Explainer: From regional stability to India's IMEC, the unintended costs of Israel's Rising Lion

The flare-up is being viewed as the most significant showdown between the two West Asian archrivals in decades, with former Indian diplomat Mahesh Sachdev describing it as an “important inflexion point" in the 26-century-old Jewish-Babylonian conflict, in a recent column. Mint explains: 

Why did Israel launch Operation Rising Lion? 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that the operation's aim was to prevent the Shia-majority country from acquiring nuclear weapons, which, in his words, pose an “existential threat" to Israel. 

However, Netanyahu's wider aim could include a regime change, i.e., toppling the theocratic government headed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei. Addressing the Iranian people directly on 13 June, he said that “as we achieve our objective, we are also clearing the path for you to achieve your objective, which is freedom". 

Also Read: Mint Explainer: How the Israel-Iran conflict can crash India’s growth party 

Israel has weakened the Iranian regime not only by the latest attacks but also by systematic targeting of its proxies—Hamas and Hezbollah in particular—in the aftermath of the 7 October 2023 terrorist attack. 

Iran also lost a valuable ally in Syria after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government in December 2024. 

However, are these developments enough to trigger widespread unrest and lead to a change of government in the Islamic nation? 

It is not clear yet. Some protests have been reported in Iran, but against the Israeli attacks. In 2022, the Iranian government faced widespread protests after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, following her arrest by morality police in Tehran for allegedly violating rules requiring women to cover their hair with a hijab or headscarf. The Khamenei regime survived the “Woman, Life, Freedom" movement. 

But a weakened Tehran may accept strict international conditions for its nuclear programme, which may work in Israel's favour.

How would a weakened Iran affect the regional stability?

The prospects of Iran becoming a nuclear power have always been viewed warily by Sunni Arab neighbours. Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons will lead to countries like Saudi Arabia pursuing their own nuclear weapons programmes. So, any denuding of Iran’s capabilities in this area would naturally be a relief.

But Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and other regional powers have condemned Israel’s attacks. 

The Gulf states seem to be in a dilemma. While Iran, with its proxies, was a challenge to all countries in the region, it was also seen as the country keeping Israel in check. Now, they will have to come to terms with a resurgent and powerful Israel and a demanding US under President Donald Trump. 

Also Read: Escalating Israel-Iran conflict to keep markets on boil in near term

According to Sachdev, the Sunni Arab world has little love lost for either Iran or Israel. A strong Israel means these nations would have to normalize ties with it under the provisions of the 2020 Abraham Accords. 

“This war is about emasculating Iran as an important player in the region and not just about the nuclear issue," said T.S. Tirumurti, India’s former permanent representative to the UN. “Whether the complete military dominance of Israel in the region is in their best interest is something the Gulf countries need to ponder over, given their own rising ambitions to play a larger geopolitical role," said Tirumurti, who has served in India’s missions to Egypt and Gaza. 

What is India’s position?  

India has always tread warily given the political complexities of the region. Iran is seen as a country with which India has “civilizational ties" and as a country that opens an alternative route to landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia through the Chabahar Port. 

Iran has also been an important source of fuel for an energy-starved India until it stopped importing oil from the country under pressure from the previous Trump administration.

However, New Delhi has had reservations about Iran’s nuclear weapons programme as it is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). It has advocated dialogue and diplomacy to solve disagreements on the matter. 

On the other hand, since 1992, when India established formal diplomatic relations with Israel, the Jewish state has been its key partner across several domains, including defence and agriculture. India has sourced bombs, drones, and technologies that it employed in operations against Pakistan as recently as during Operation Sindoor. 

In the aftermath of the 22 April Pahalgam attack, it was only Israel that identified Pakistan by name as a perpetrator of the terrorist attack. 

India’s wariness also stems from the fact that approximately 9 million Indians live in the Gulf countries and the wider West Asian region. Their safety and security, as well as their economic contribution in terms of remittances, are vital. 

Most of the time, India has taken its cue from Gulf Arab states while reacting to complex situations in the region, including the plight of the Palestinians. “As of now, India is looking at events in the region through the lens of its close relations with Israel. The almost paralysed reaction of Gulf countries towards the Gaza war and its severe impact on the Palestinians, and the Gulf’s fear of Iran’s role in the region, have convinced India even more that it is following the right policy," Tirumurti said. 

This would explain why India distanced itself from the strong condemnation issued by the China-Russia dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organisation over the weekend. 

How does the conflict impact the India-Middle East-Europe-Economic Corridor (IMEC)?

Announced in 2023 on the margins of the G20 Summit in New Delhi, the IMEC is a strategic project that aims to connect South Asia, West Asia, and Europe through transport, data, renewable electricity grids and clean hydrogen pipelines. 

“Geopolitical and geoeconomic considerations underpin the rationale for the IMEC," according to the think tank Observer Research Foundation. 

The proposal grew out of the peace envisaged in West Asia after the 2020 Abraham Accords and the emergence of the Israel-India-US-UAE (I2U2) grouping in October 2021. However, the 7 October 2023 terrorist attack in Israel and the following war have slowed the IMEC considerably.

Also Read: India concerned about crude oil supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz as prices surge after Israel's attacks on Iran

Given India’s wobbly ties with Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh, the IMEC is seen as a game-changer for the country's trade and economic prospects in the years to come. “It’s a strategic project, one that India is keen to see through. It may be delayed, but one cannot write it off," said a person familiar with the Gulf region and the IMEC project. 

However, the recent flare-up adds another layer of uncertainty to the project taking off, given the unpredictability of the nature of conflicts and that too, like the present one, in a region riddled with complexities.   

Elizabeth Roche is an associate professor of practice, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat.