Mint Primer: What if the US joins Israel’s war with Iran?

Mint is reupping an 18 June primer, examining the implications of the US joining the Israel-Iran war.

Israel and Iran are exchanging strikes for the sixth day, with no sign of either side letting up yet. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender" amid indications that his administration might be preparing to join forces with Israel. Mint examines the implications of the US move.

What are the chances of the US joining the Israel-Iran conflict?

Trump has signalled intervening on behalf of Israel with some cryptic remarks on Truth Social, a social media platform he founded in 2022. With reports that the US has moved more military assets to West Asia, speculation is mounting that the US is preparing for action. This may yet be a threat to force Iran’s hand. The US has so far only taken indirect action, i.e., helping shoot down Iranian missiles. 

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But any US intervention would be decisive in diminishing the Islamic Republic's nuclear capacity, especially if it were to use the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (GBU-57), known as the bunker-busting bomb, to destroy the Fordow facility. It's Iran's second uranium enrichment facility after Natanz, which Israel targeted in its 13 June strikes that started the conflict.  

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Trump had campaigned for the 2024 elections on his deal-making credentials, promising to end the Israel-Gaza and the Russia-Ukraine conflicts within days of getting into office. Five months later, the US could be preparing to join Israel's new front against Iran. 

News reports suggest Trump’s core “Make America Great Again" support base is split, with a significant section opposed to any US role. Other reports say Trump started off sceptical but embraced the strategy when he saw Israel’s initial strikes proving to be a success. Trump now said to believe Iran can be forced to offer concessions in any dialogue. 

Would US intervention help Israel politically?

A weakened Iran would help Israel establish itself as a major power in West Asia. Iran was seen as its principal rival in the region, which held the Jewish state in check. With Hezbollah and Hamas decimated, the US help in the Iran conflict could ease pressure on Israel and be taken as a signal to carry on its campaigns in Gaza and the West Bank.

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Would the US move accelerate regime change in Iran?

That is hard to say. Iranians have been protesting against the rule of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like to capitalise on these sentiments. 

However, the people in the region have reacted negatively to developments in Gaza, including Israeli bombardment, denial of food and medical aid, as well as in the West Bank and Lebanon, according to analysts. While ordinary Iranians may be tired of external sanctions, which have impoverished them, and oppressive theocratic rule, it is felt that Israeli actions in Iran could have an opposite effect—it may ignite nationalist sentiment.

How would Gulf nations look at the US action?

Israel’s emasculation of Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as the fall of Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, have been welcomed by Gulf nations. This is because they see Iran as a potential threat to the region. But that does not mean countries like Saudi Arabia and others would be comfortable with a militarily dominant Israel and a demanding US under Trump. A resurgent Israel would mean that Sunni Arab nations like Saudi Arabia would have to normalize ties with Israel, not as equals but with inferior status under the 2020 Abraham Accords.

Also Read: Israel-Iran conflict: How will rising crude oil prices affect India?

 

Elizabeth Roche is an associate professor at O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana.