Global news wrap: Israel-Iran conflict, US student visas, global growth, rising temperature

Oil’s well

Global crude oil prices are sensitive to global economic and geopolitical events. However, the recent conflict between Israel and Iran, despite heightened fears, did not cause crude oil prices to shoot up to a worrying level. 

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The two previous geopolitical disruptions—the Russia-Ukraine war and the Arab Spring—led to spikes in oil prices, which lasted a few months. While Brent crude oil futures jumped 7% on the day the conflict broke out, it remained largely range-bound even as Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key sea passage for trade. Two key factors explain this market reaction. First, traders have become less reactive to geopolitical risks unless disruptions materialize. Second, the US’s increased oil production offers a buffer against supply disruptions from crises in West Asia. Now, with a ceasefire in place, although fragile, the oil market has seen some correction.

Visa vex

In a sweeping move that raises serious privacy concerns, the US has made it mandatory for all applicants of F, M, and J visas (including international students and exchange visitors) to make their personal social media accounts public. Effective immediately, this rule allows US visa officers full access to an applicant’s online activity across platforms like Facebook, Instagram, X, and TikTok, among others. 

While social media handles have been collected since 2019, this drastic expansion of scrutiny marks a new level of surveillance. A slew of restrictions under the Donald Trump administration is likely to impact the US’s status as the top education hub and its offer of the ‘American dream’. The US is home to the largest number of international students, with 1.1 million enrolled in its universities in 2024. Stricter visa rules are also being implemented in Canada and the UK, the other top choices, making foreign education harder.

Pruned projections

The World Bank has sharply lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3% from the 2.7% forecast given in January. This would be the weakest pace of growth since 2008 outside of recession periods. The cut reflects a sharp deterioration in economic conditions as trade wars, policy gridlocks, and geopolitical unrest disrupt economies. Nearly 70% of countries have seen a downgrade in their outlooks compared to the January edition. 

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India's growth forecast has also been lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 6.3% for 2025-26, even though it continues to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Globally, growth in developing economies has dropped steadily over the past two decades, from 6% annually in the first 10 years of the century to below 4% in the 2020s. A rebound is possible if major economies strike meaningful trade deals, potentially lifting growth by 0.2 percentage points over the next two years, the World Bank said.

Policy watch

Central banks in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone are gearing up for monetary policy meetings next month. All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve, where Chair Jerome Powell faces mounting political and internal pressure to begin cutting interest rates. While Powell has urged patience, recent comments from Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman indicated a rate cut in July if inflation stays low. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has already been easing rates, cutting by 25 basis points in June as inflation trends lower. While the ECB may have the room to cut further, it is unlikely in July given the previous cut. Meanwhile, Japan is also expected to pause again, after having hiked interest rates earlier, as growth prospects have dimmed. In the past one year, the US, EU and Japan have had different monetary policy trajectories based on their domestic macroeconomic factors. However, global factors like trade wars and growth slowdown are becoming important again.

Scorching spring

Heat has scorched its way into the UK’s spring months, with the country having recorded a 43% increase in sunshine hours in March-May 2025. Sunshine hours, which typically last four to six hours per day during spring in the UK, shot up to 7.1 hours per day, beating the previous record of 6.8 hours per day in 2020. Longer sunshine hours are directly proportional to rising temperatures in the country. All four nations in the UK—England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland—recorded their warmest spring, with some regions seeing temperatures up to 1.6 degrees Celsius above average.

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A marine heatwave added to the anomaly, with coastal waters 4 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. Other European countries are also witnessing rising heat, with temperatures reaching 38 degrees Celsius in southern France and 40 degrees Celsius in parts of Spain. Experts warn that the extreme spring and early-summer heat is a stark reminder of a warming planet.