Taiwan is getting its US weaponry—but years behind schedule

Less prominently mentioned was the long wait that preceded the arrival of the 38 Abrams tanks: Taiwan placed the order five years ago in June 2019, during President-elect Donald Trump’s first term.

According to the original plan, the Taiwanese military was to receive its first batch of cutting-edge M1A2 Abrams tanks in 2022, replacing the Vietnam War-era Patton tanks that Taiwan’s army has relied on for decades.

But the U.S. missed that timeline by two years as the Covid-19 pandemic and new wars in Ukraine and the Middle East added strains to the U.S. defense industry.

Now, as Trump prepares to return to the White House, Western and Taiwanese defense analysts say that Taiwan’s backlog of arms deliveries—including F-16V jet fighters and TOW antitank missiles—is likely to clear up somewhat.

For decades, Washington has been Taipei’s most important military backer, supplying the weapons needed to deter and defend against a potential attack by China. Beijing claims the island as its territory and hasn’t ruled out the use of force in asserting control over it.

Beijing regularly protests announcements of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, decrying them as interference in its sovereign affairs. What has proven more effective in keeping advanced American weaponry out of Taiwanese hands hasn’t been Chinese complaints, but rather U.S. supply bottlenecks.

At one point this year, the value of paid-for-but-as-yet-undelivered weapon systems to Taiwan topped $20 billion, according to calculations by Eric Gomez, a defense analyst at the Washington-based Cato Institute. “This number should start coming down," Gomez said.

In addition to the Abrams tanks, Taiwan last month received its first batch of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or Himars. The U.S.-made long-range high-precision rocket launching system—used to great effect by Ukraine in its war against Russia—puts targets along China’s southeastern coastline within striking range.

The arrival of the Himars also brought Gomez’s estimate of the value of the undelivered weapons orders to Taiwan down to $19.17 billion in November, before the tanks’ arrival this week.

“Between now and the end of 2026, we’re going to be entering this window where, provided there’s no additional delays, a bunch of large sales should complete over these next couple years," he said.

By the end of this year, a shipment of TOW-2B antitank missiles is expected to arrive after delays the Taiwanese military partly attributed to strains on the U.S. defense industry. Taiwan’s air force says it is optimistic that it will receive the F-16V jet fighters by 2026.

The sale of the TOW-2B missiles was approved roughly a decade ago in 2015 under then-President Barack Obama, while the Trump administration agreed to sell 108 Abrams tanks and 66 F-16V jet fighters to Taiwan in 2019, followed by the Himars systems in 2020. The remaining 70 Abrams tanks are expected to arrive by 2026.

A spokesman for the Pentagon said it is working closely with defense contractors to expand production capacity and accelerate delivery of arms to the island. “Taiwan is prioritized to the greatest extent possible," Maj. Pete Nguyen wrote in response to questions, adding that long delivery dates aren’t specific to Taiwan but rather a global challenge.

The approach that Trump will take to Taiwan more generally remains unclear. During the election campaign, Trump warned that Taiwan would have to significantly increase its military spending and not rely entirely on U.S. military support. Trump has also at times emphasized his close personal ties to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, while highlighting in Taiwan’s proximity to the Chinese mainland and its great distance from the U.S.

On the other hand, Trump has picked a number of prominent China hawks to lead his national security team, including Sen. Marco Rubio for secretary of state and Rep. Mike Waltz for national security adviser. Some Taiwanese analysts say the selection of traditional Republican Party skeptics of Beijing offers Taiwan an opportunity to acquire weapons it has long sought.

“In the U.S., the two parties handle arms sales to Taiwan differently. Now that we’re in the second Trump term, Taiwan should take this chance to upgrade some of the outdated platforms in its military," said Su Tzu-yun, a Taipei-based security expert with the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, which is backed by Taiwan’s military.

Taiwanese officials have talked up their commitment to improving their military capabilities and pledged to increase the island’s military spending, despite an opposition-controlled legislature whose sway over the budget has complicated such efforts.

While the specific items on Taiwan’s wish list remain unclear, a spokeswoman for President Lai Ching-te last month dismissed reports suggesting Taipei is considering purchasing F-35 jet fighters from Lockheed Martin and E-2D Advanced Hawkeye aircraft from Northrop Grumman, among other big-ticket machinery.

Whatever Taiwan decides to splurge on, any new orders “would jack up the backlog number right back way higher to where it was before. And it would also take a long time to deliver on," said Gomez of the Cato Institute. “There’s this question of, like, do you think Taiwan buys political goodwill or does it actually buy useful military capabilities that could be delivered fast?"

The new Abrams tanks, analysts say, check both boxes, sending a splashy message to the Trump administration that Taiwan is willing to pay up to improve its defenses, while also boosting its capabilities in the event China’s military makes a landing on Taiwan.

“Taiwan, yes, purchases high-ticket items that some people might debate the utility of. But at the end of the day, I think that they have made wise decisions with their money," said Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the Rand think tank.

The Taiwanese military’s glee at the arrival of the long-delayed machinery could be seen in the welcome it offered the Abrams tanks earlier this week. A clip released by Taiwan’s Defense Ministry showed the tanks shrouded in black cloth and carried on trucks, arriving at the island’s Armor Training Command just before dawn on Monday. The heavily armored vehicles also feature prominently in the Defense Ministry’s calendar for the coming year, hailed as “the world’s strongest tank!!"

More recently, the departing Biden administration last month approved the sale of $320 million worth of spare parts and advanced radars for F-16 jets to Taiwan.

The U.S. should “stop arming Taiwan and stop encouraging or supporting ‘Taiwan independence’ forces trying to achieve their goals through military means," Lin Jian, a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said Monday at a press briefing.

Write to Joyu Wang at joyu.wang@wsj.com