Trump set for win on higher NATO spending at summit

The hard-won deal, to be formally announced on Wednesday, almost collapsed due to last-minute objections from Spain. Negotiations also continued until recent days over how the summit communiqué would address the issues of support for Ukraine and the danger posed by Russia. Europeans have wanted strong statements on both, echoing past North Atlantic Treaty Organization declarations, but the Trump administration had resisted.

Summit organizers, knowing Trump’s dislike for long international meetings and record of lambasting NATO allies for low spending—as well as his unwillingness to take strong action against Russia, NATO’s longtime adversary—deliberately kept the summit and its final statement brief. The concluding document will have just five paragraphs, according to diplomats, compared with around 50 paragraphs and almost 100 paragraphs at recent summits.

The declaration will effectively say that NATO is united and commits to the spending boost, with only passing mention of the war in Ukraine. The document will call Russia a threat, according to the diplomats. Europeans pushed hard to include that against U.S. reluctance, arguing its inclusion is vital for justifying big increases in military investments, the diplomats said.

Many officials at NATO still worry that Trump will do something unexpected, as he has at past NATO summits. They say an unstated goal of the gathering, which will include a dinner hosted by Dutch King Willem-Alexander on Tuesday, is simply to conclude without incident or disruptive disagreement.

Still, the prospect of agreement and unity—if only around limited goals—is an unexpected turn of events for many involved, considering Trump’s repeated excoriating of NATO.

Trump’s attendance was even in doubt over the weekend, following the U.S. bombing of Iran, but White House officials said he would attend. Iran, which is outside NATO’s remit, won’t be on the summit agenda but is likely to be a hot topic on the sidelines.

When Trump early this year said allies should raise military outlays to 5% of economic output from 2%, many European diplomats and former U.S. NATO officials dismissed the idea as unachievable. But NATO’s European members and Canada, whom Trump has long criticized for low military spending, also wanted to avoid giving him reason to disengage from the 32-country alliance.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, in coordination with U.S. NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker and other diplomats, developed a plan to hit Trump’s target while working to fulfill new military plans being developed in response to renewed Russian aggression. Those plans, prepared by NATO’s military staff, envision significantly expanding Europe’s combat capabilities to levels not seen since the Cold War. Officials said realizing the blueprints would cost around 3.5% of gross domestic product for Europeans and Canada, up from the 2% target set in 2014.

The rise to 3.5% was already a stretch for most members when Trump proposed 5%. Rather than reject the higher figure, Rutte in March pitched a new approach: The additional 1.5% of GDP would be spent on generally nonlethal investments that are vital to military activities and homeland defense but don’t fall within NATO’s traditional definition of military spending. Defense-related fields include support for armament manufacturing, boosting cybersecurity, enhancing government crisis-response capabilities and adapting critical infrastructure such as roads, railroads and ports to military needs.

Rutte’s idea quickly gained support as ambitious but realistic for most NATO members, particularly as Trump administration officials repeatedly hammered at the 5% target.

“The 5% commitment is the single most important step NATO can take to ensure it remains strong and ready for the future," Whitaker said Monday. “This summit is really about NATO’s credibility."

Spain’s objection to the 5% target prompted intense negotiations over the weekend. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Monday said he had won an opt-out from meeting the new investment goal, an assertion that Rutte rejected.

“NATO has no opt-outs or side-deals," said Rutte on Monday. He said members have flexibility on how they reach agreed spending targets and capability goals.

The last-minute compromise appears to have papered over differences on spending, at least temporarily. Spain’s hesitance to sign on to goals—while other members that also face budget pressures assented—left many people close to NATO feeling that alliance unity had been harmed.

Spain’s approach “demonstrates a lack of understanding of what NATO is about," said former Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former Danish prime minister. “NATO is a collective-defense alliance and everybody must live up to the common targets."

Write to Daniel Michaels at Dan.Michaels@wsj.com and Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com