Who will become Japan’s next prime minister?
Summary
- The three leading candidates offer very different visions
In a year of startling election results and roller-coaster campaigns, you could be forgiven for failing to notice the battle to lead Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). But the result of the ruling party’s internal vote on September 27th matters a lot. The winner of the contest will become Japan’s prime minister on October 1st—replacing Kishida Fumio, the LDP’s current leader, who decided last month to stand down. Who takes his job will affect Japan’s role in the region, and in the world.
While other rich democracies have struggled with polarisation and populism, Japan has been acting as a quiet stabiliser in world affairs, argues Hosoya Yuichi of Keio University in Tokyo. Mr Kishida has beefed up Japan’s armed forces, deepened its alliance with America, and helped repair relations with South Korea, which are haunted by the legacy of Japan’s colonisation of Korea between 1910 and 1945.
Yet within Japan, voters have been souring on the LDP. It has lost power only twice since 1955 and for the moment remains virtually assured to win the next general election. But many in the party fear that a recent scandal over the misuse of political funds will see it lose a big batch of seats. Nine candidates have promised they can steady the ship. Three front-runners have emerged, each with a vision for Japan.
Koizumi Shinjiro, at 43, would be Japan’s youngest post-war leader. In his office in the Diet he keeps a picture of another charismatic youngster, John F. Kennedy—his political hero. His father, Junichiro, served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006 and was known as a reformer; the junior Koizumi has tapped into that legacy. He supports changing Japanese law to allow married couples to keep separate surnames—an issue that has become a proxy for broader battles over sexism and family life. (Most Japanese support such a change, but social conservatives have thus far blocked it.)
Whereas the elder Koizumi fought to privatise Japan’s postal service, the younger Koizumi’s plans for economic reform involve encouraging competition in ossified industries (he wants to start by legalising ride-sharing, which is long overdue). But shaky performances in debates suggest his policy ideas have yet to be fully formed. And although he is well-connected in America, where he has studied and worked, Mr Koizumi does not have much experience of foreign policy.
Takaichi Sanae, a hard-right nationalist, would be Japan’s first ever female leader. Ms Takaichi admires Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s “Iron Lady". She presents herself as the ideological heir to Abe Shinzo, a former prime minister who was murdered in 2022. She promises that if she becomes prime minister she will visit the Yasukuni Shrine, which houses the spirits of Japan’s war dead, including war criminals. That would infuriate China and imperil rapprochement with South Korea; both associate the shrine with Japanese imperialism. It would also create friction with America. She supports expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. But she has shown less enthusiasm for the third and most crucial aspect of Abenomics: structural reform.
Ishiba Shigeru, an ageing maverick, is making his fifth run for the LDP’s leadership. His political mentor was Tanaka Kakuei, a powerful post-war figure who, before being felled by a corruption scandal, was known as the “commoners’ prime minister" for his commitment to poorer regions.
Populist flair, and decades of door-to-door campaigning, have made Mr Ishiba the most popular candidate in polls of the general public. But many colleagues regard him as a traitor for abandoning the party for several years in the 1990s. Known as a defence otaku (obsessive), Mr Ishiba lines his office shelves with models of warships and fighter jets. He enjoys taking stubborn stances, such as calling for an “Asian NATO". His economic agenda focuses on revitalising Japan’s outlying regions.
Whoever triumphs on the 27th will soon face big tests at home and abroad. The new prime minister will have to manage a tense relationship with China and build ties with a new American president. They will need to lead the LDP through upper- and lower-house elections that are due within a year. And they will have to keep control of a fractious party. Missteps could usher in another period of revolving-door prime ministers (the country had seven leaders in the decade to 2012). Can Japan can continue to bring stability to the world, or will it too go wobbly?
© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Ltd.
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