Opinion
Winning votes by working at the grassroots level
Summary
- Data about welfare schemes of the government, how much money had been spent on each, and who the beneficiaries were of each scheme were at every worker’s fingertips.
By early evening on 8 October 2024, results for elections to Haryana and the Union territory of Jammu & Kashmir were clear. Television debates were intense, but one expert’s comment stood out for its sheer wisdom. “We can learn from Congress how to throw away a sure-shot win, and from BJP how to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat," he said.
A conversation I had with a senior BJP leader a day before counting of votes reveals the secret behind the election result in Haryana. This leader asked me what my opinion was about Haryana. I countered that he would be in a better position to say as he had spent a long time in that state. He told me the mood in Haryana had shifted perceptibly over the days ahead of elections and insisted that the BJP was sure to form the government there again. I thought he was imposing his party’s views on me.
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The next day when counting was about to conclude he called me again and I asked him what had made him so confident of a BJP victory the previous day. His reply was startling.
He said despite his seniority, he was asked to visit panchayats instead of organizing large gatherings. Panchayats and villages he visited mostly belonged to his community. He said he may have touched the feet of close to 5,000 elders. They not only blessed him but also helped during the polls. He said many leaders like him had been roped in for the same exercise. Even senior leaders like Dharmendra Pradhan insisted on public relations and meetings with workers instead of large public gatherings.
The BJP also went all out to woo non-Jat votes. The Congress was heavily banking on Bhupinder Hooda and son, while the BJP consolidated its position by constantly reminding every voter how Prime Minister Narendra Modi was personally looking after their well-being. Data about welfare schemes of the government, how much money had been spent on each, and who the beneficiaries were of each scheme were at every worker’s fingertips.
The gap between social reality and data was bridgeable, and the BJP was able to march into the corridors of power in Haryana for a record third time.
Nerves of steel
Just before the general elections in 2024, BJP had replaced Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, a leader from an extremely backward caste, as Haryana’s chief minister. It needs nerves of steel to pull off such a political gambit. Congress, by contrast, couldn’t resist the temptation of projecting ageing Bhupinder Hooda as the spearhead of their Haryana campaign. They had made the same mistake of surrendering to the satraps in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan and lost elections.
Like every other state, internal differences were out in the open. Side-lining Kumari Selja’s group during ticket distribution and her non-appearance in public gatherings sent the wrong signals. Apathy towards the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and emerging Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad proved costly. It should be noted that AAP secured 1.79% of the votes while the Congress got 39.09%. If both had joined hands their combined strength would have been 40.87% ahead of BJP’s 39.94%.
Haryana may not have given AAP any reason to cheer, but Jammu and Kashmir has. Violence hit Doda district elected AAP candidate Mehraj Malik.
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Now that the Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections are on the horizon, Congress will be subjected to ruthless bargaining from its alliance partners. Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and AAP have offered a glimpse of coming cold and hard negotiations. Samajwadi Party has already announced seven out of 10 candidates for Uttar Pradesh by-elections. Though Akhilesh Yadav said his party would fight the elections along with the Congress, the latter is in no position to bargain. Similarly, AAP has announced that it will go alone in the Delhi assembly elections early next year.
Congress will find the going tough in keeping the INDIA “flock" together at the state level.
Let’s talk about Jammu & Kashmir. Here the National Conference and the Congress coalition looks stable but the Congress is at the mercy of the Abdullahs. The BJP, on the other hand, has never been a force to reckon with in the valley. However, this time it has extended its influence in the region. In one constituency, BJP lost by just a thousand votes. The party’s vote percentage has risen to 25.64% in the Union territory.
Finally let’s address the age-old question: When will Congress learn from its mistakes? Look at the past 10 elections, you’ll get your answer.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.
