Opinion
Crystal ball review: AI has evolved only partly as predicted a quarter ago
Summary
- Tech wars are heating up, AI on smartphones is closer to reality and preparations are underway for an AI-led job shift, but we still don’t see chief AI officers as AI adoption has been a bit slow.
Even as humanity frets about all the jobs AI will impact, one profession clearly under threat is that of predicting the future. What job does a futurist have if everything changes every now and then as an AI company unveils a product that makes our jaws drop. Every January, I would predict the top 10 things that would happen in tech that year; and then go back with some trepidation at year-end to score how I fared in my fortune-telling abilities. I did the same this January and whipped out my 10 AI predictions for 2024. However, given the onslaught of innovation, I have resolved to do a quarterly scorecard. With the year’s first frenzied quarter having drawn to a close, here it is:
Tech wars would rage: The AI race would accelerate, I said, with the Microsoft-OpenAI alliance in fierce contest with a resurgent Google. OpenAI would launch GPT5, which will outpace Gemini Ultra. Verdict: It’s still to play out, but the signs look promising. Sam Altman has spoken of GPT5 in the “middle of the year." Gemini Ultra seems to have had a major hiccup and has been temporarily withdrawn. So, this one seems right on the money, 10/10.
AI moves to the edge: Gemini Nano on the Pixel and an AppleGPT on iPhones could be the sleeper hits, dislodging OpenAI from the lead. Mobile access and integration would win over the PC. Verdict: Samsung AI Phone launched in February. Microsoft Surface AI version was announced, followed by Intel AI PC. Qualcomm predicts $99 AI phones by the end of 2024. No AppleGPT. But AI is hurtling towards the edge. So it’s 7/10.
Race to regulation: This race is as big as the race to develop AI. Following the EU AI Act, many other countries will release AI regulations. There will be an effort for global regulation modelled on the nuclear IAEA or CoP climate summits. Verdict: The EU AI Act came right on time. Otherwise, we had more noise than action. India and the US are still to announce comprehensive rules. 4/10.
The future of work: AI will start transforming work, especially with the launch of Microsoft Copilot and similar products. Work will be the biggest use case for GenAI. Verdict: Microsoft is all in now, with CoPilots for everything, including a copilot key on its Surface keyboards. Github Copilot is doing well, but 365 Copilot still underwhelms. 3/10.
AI will impact jobs: Jobs will not be directly hit, but many companies across the world will use AI and GenAI as a cover to retrench for efficiency. Verdict: Everyone across tech is shedding jobs and blaming ‘AI related efficiencies.’ Every country is preparing for a great shift in jobs with AI. 7/10.
Open and proprietary LLMs: The other race will be between proprietary and open-source GenAI, with performance trading off against decentralization. Proprietary tech will continue to have the upper hand, at least in 2024. Verdict: Open source seems to be edging out proprietary. Grok has gone open, Meta Llama is going gangbusters. There is momentum out there. Sticking my neck out, I think 2024 still belongs to OpenAI and non-open models. 5/10.
Big Tech reshaped: There will be new entrants to the Big Tech league of Microsoft, Meta, Netflix, Alphabet and Amazon. Verdict: The Nvidia juggernaut rolls on. It’s the No. 3 Big Tech firm now, and its recent Developer Day had intriguing announcements. Google seems to be slipping. 7/10.
AI threatens democracy: With 2 billion-plus people going to polls in 2024, technologies like deepfakes will be used actively by many players to change narratives and voters’ minds. Verdict: I have teeth gritted on this one. It’s too early to call since both the US and Indian elections are later in the year. But the signs of deepfake destabilization still look promising, if that is the word. 5/10.
Microsoft and OpenAI: Microsoft may buy OpenAI or break up with it. Some of the big funded GenAI startups may close (Stability?), and some may merge. Verdict: Ah, this is an interesting one. Microsoft poached Mustafa Suleyman and Inflection in a massive hedge move against OpenAI. Altman has looked a bit shaky. Emad Mostaque is out; Stability not that stable anymore. 8/10.
Chief AI officers: More companies will appoint CAIOs, like many of them had chief digital officers. The CAIO will become the new hot ticket in town. Verdict: Well, one must go wrong somewhere. There aren’t many CAIOs, as business is yet to embrace GenAI. 0/10.
They say that one should never make predictions, especially about the future. But the tech world would agree with Peter Drucker when he said the best way to predict the future is to create it. And no single thing is creating the future like AI is.
