Is Bihar casting its vote or voting back its castes?

This is why the Bharatiya Janata Party did not hesitate to support Nitish Kumar when he broke with the grand alliance and formed a government with the party ahead of the 2020 assembly elections. This alliance fought and won the 2020 elections, but after 24 months, Nitish returned to Lalu Yadav, breaking free from the “natural partnership" and returning to the “old family".

Everyone knew then that the tide would turn again. Nitish, who had previously felt “suffocated" with BJP, agreed to form a government with the party a few months before the Lok Sabha elections. He is now a member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and has stated, “Now I will not go anywhere; I will stay here." RJD and BJP also changed their tone on Nitish accordingly.

Shifting allegiances

Bihar is the only state in recent times where the chief minister has changed political partners four times. But why are the RJD and BJP collaborating with Nitish without learning from previous mistakes? The answer is simple. Among Bihar’s approximately 76.4 million voters, 8–10% choose to be with Nitish in all situations.

Also read: Bihar CM Nitish Kumar predicts ‘more than 4,000 seats’ for NDA

The reason behind such loyalty to Nitish is that after becoming CM for the second time in 2005, he took several revolutionary initiatives. His government gave away bicycles to girls in every town and village. This brought girls out of homes to pursue education, and ushered in a shift in society’s lowest classes. He also envisioned schemes for providing water and electricity to every household.

Furthermore, through liquor prohibition in 2016, he won the hearts of underprivileged women in villages. The experiment has also been criticized, though, owing to the loss of lives caused by illicit liquor. Liquor smuggling is also commonplace now. The law was so harsh that people started calling it “devilish". It was softened to some extent as opposition mounted, but is still as hard as tortoiseshell.

The opponents of Nitish argue that his recent shift has done irreparable damage to his reputation. Some of his recent utterances have also drawn great outcry. The current election will be the most significant test of people’s attitudes towards him.

Political games

It is necessary to mention Tejashwi Yadav here. He fought the 2020 elections with the Congress and the Left. In due course, his Rashtriya Janata Dal became the largest party in the Bihar Assembly. But five of his MLAs switched sides and the BJP is again the largest party in the assembly with 85 MLAs.

Also read: Is Bihar CM Nitish Kumar ‘trapped’? Tejashwi Yadav says 'a thing to ponder upon...'

Needless to say, BJP plays political games carefully. The party understands when to be friendly and when to abandon someone. The Paswans are an example of this. Ram Vilas Paswan died while campaigning for the 2020 elections, sparking a power struggle between his sons Chirag and younger brother Pashupati Kumar Paras. The latter broke away his faction of the party taking five out of six MPs of Lok Janshakti Party and was appointed to the Union cabinet. This stunned Chirag, who also calls himself “Modi’s Hanuman". But prior to the current elections, the saffron party pivoted back to Chirag, leaving Paras high and dry. Former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi is among those who have joined and left the NDA. He has been shifting sides throughout time, which has been extremely beneficial for him.

Caste equations

The BJP has wisely balanced caste equations in the state. All its candidates intend to cross the river holding on to the hands of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is the most popular leader here, too. But INDIA bloc will give NDA a tough fight. In first phase of elections in Bihar, votes were polled for four seats. However, voter turnout at the polls was 5% lower, just as in other states of the Hindi belt. This has made the NDA more alert.

Also read: 'PM Modi aims to transcend divisive politics of caste, religion': Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman during Mint Summit

The people of Bihar are undoubtedly politically sensitive, but they remain obstinate about voting on the basis of castes. In such a situation, will NDA be able to work its magic in the state, just as it had done in 2014 and 2019, or will caste equations become the overriding factor? When viewed from the top, the land of Chanakya and Chandragupta appears to be filled with apathetic silence, but the same questions are resonating in the minds of every Bihari at this time.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.