Opinion
President Trump’s decisions will set the global order
Summary
- Many economists believe the global markets will see an economic downturn if Trump’s petulance prevails on 2 April
When you make a pact with the devil, he always comes back to get his due. I wish Volodymyr Zelensky had remembered this before getting into a confrontation with Russia. Had that been the case, his country would have saved itself from ruin. What the Ukrainians are subject to today is the result of a double-cross by the US. The 180 degree shift in US attitude towards Ukraine has rattled the world.
On 5 March, in his address to the nation, US president Donald Trump asserted that after Mexico, Canada and China, he would slap tariffs on other countries, including India and Brazil, that are equal to what they have put on US products in their respective countries. As expected, the countries retaliated and the share markets globally reacted adversely.
Stunned by global resistance on the issue, Trump suspended the new tariff orders on three countries till 2 April. But can he implement the tariffs in April?
Many economists believe the global markets will see an economic downturn if Trump’s petulance prevails on 2 April. Only time will tell for how long such a downturn would last, if and when it sets in. But what’s clear now is that the coming months will be economically hard for the lower middle class and the poor. If the tariff war resumes in April, inflation will hit new peaks.
The US has, till recently, been a vocal critic of trade protectionism, but has itself been practising the same. People close to Trump regard him as a person inclined towards protectionism and imperialism. The way he doubled down on renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America betrayed his imperial impulses.
But if Trump dares to initiate military action against Canada and Greenland, who will stop China from annexing Taiwan, or India from reclaiming Pakistan Occupied Kashmir?
Such actions would fundamentally alter the global order, which had started giving way in 1991 when the US and its allies launched an attack on Iraq. The UN and powerful nations capitulated to this alliance’s will. A decade later, the same was repeated in Afghanistan. Today the way Ukrainian society is being deceived is reminiscent of how the US betrayed people of Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s no surprise that US allies since World War II are feeling dismayed. The way US vice-president J.D. Vance hectored European leaders in the Munich Security Dialogue qualifies as unprecedented impudence in geopolitics. As expected, it drew sharp criticism.
Following this fracas, the way French president Emanuel Macron and British PM Keir Starmer were heckled in the White House left every sane person, with an iota of decency, red-faced. This boorish behaviour peaked when Zelensky arrived in the White House, and deserves a mention in the US hall of shame.
In a public spat, Zelensky was badgered by both Trump and Vance. The way Zelensky was unceremoniously thrown out of the Oval Office will be remembered as the human equivalent of the stories of wolves brutally making mincemeat of lambs.
Zelensky returned to Kiev and surrendered to Trump. Now the US, too, will have a stake in Ukraine’s mineral wealth. A question being raised now is: Will Russia return the land it has annexed from Ukraine? If yes, how much of it? If Moscow can retain even 20% of the Ukrainian land, it would be the second victory of Russian expansionism after the annexation of Crimea.
People may ask: What is the outcome of the three-year-long war in Ukraine? Why did 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers die and millions suffered ignominy and displacement?
European nations, too, have contributed to the Ukraine war along with the US. During the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns, the US was able to dominate global affairs with the help of its Nato allies. In Afghanistan, the US lost 2,400 soldiers while the UK, Canada, Germany, France and Italy together lost 1,100.
These nations today are being threatened with a US Nato pull-out and are wondering why they were dragged into campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan when they had no animosity with these nations? They are forced to evaluate the cost of siding with the US.
Europe is also realizing its folly of mastering manufacturing but ceding the entire field of artificial intelligence to the US.
We are heading towards a new world order that heightens the possibility of deadly regional contests, uprisings, and terrorist tendencies. It would lead to an arms race and money spent on welfare would dry up. We may ask, is this what we have achieved from the US capitalism?
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.
