Opinion
Great nations do not tell themselves that geography is destiny
Summary
- The trajectories of India’s neighbours are driven more by their own agency than their adjacency to India. Think of Bangladesh. In general, India should continue to invest in its neighbours’ future even if the outcome of that investment is not in New Delhi’s hands.
There is no such thing as a perfect neighbour. We find it very difficult to adjust to our neighbours in our day-to-day lives. Without them, we feel lost, and with them, we often jostle as we try to adjust on a daily basis to find a rhythm to our mutual liking.
We celebrate with them for sure, but we also find small differences to squabble over on a routine basis. It’s hard work and a daily grind. And we do this for we recognize that there is no optimal solution and that we need to work on it constantly, if only to secure our own peace of mind.
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This is also the case with nations. Countries, big or small, struggle when it comes to their neighbourhood. There is no perfect neighbourhood anywhere in the world and there is no prefect neighbourhood policy. And the more familial the relations seem, the more troubled they are likely to be at their core.
India and its neighbourhood are no different and can’t be different. But every time there is a crisis in India’s vicinity, voices about New Delhi’s so-called failure in its backyard emerge with vehemence.
Interestingly, most of these voices are of those who have in the past been part of the nation’s diplomatic establishment, managing the same neighbourhood with as much success or failure as their successors.
But in the process of berating the present, the past is conveniently forgotten and the same old cliches are presented as solutions to challenges for Indian diplomacy in the neighbourhood that have been peddled for decades without acknowledging that they have been tried in various combinations over the past seven decades.
It is no one’s case that Indian policies in the neighbourhood are perfect and don’t require a closer and critical scrutiny. Yet, the lack of perspective in discussing major news events in South Asia is at times astonishing.
As Sheikh Hasina’s dramatic ouster from power last month and continuing turmoil in Bangladesh since then have underlined, New Delhi’s ability to shape the trajectory of its neighbours remains fairly limited.
This is as much about a lack of comprehension within Indian bureaucracy and intelligence about the scale of Bangladesh’s internal shift as it is about the agency of Bangladesh to craft its own political future.
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The stability of last 15 odd years in Bangladesh and the concomitant stability in Delhi-Dhaka ties, therefore, was also not a reflection of any great diplomatic brilliance on the part of India.
It was largely a function of the choice that Bangladesh had made after years of political turmoil, and all New Delhi did was to nurture it the best it could.
It is easy to forget in hindsight how difficult India’s ties were with Bangladesh before Hasina and there was hardly any optimism over this relationship in New Delhi.
And now that anti-India sentiment is high once again, it should not be forgotten that anti-India rallies under the then Bangladesh Nationalist Party government were quite the norm.
Similarly, in the Maldives, Ibrahim Solih’s term in office was not any great vindication of Indian success, just as Mohamed Muizzu’s coming to power has more to do with Maldivian politics than just New Delhi’s failure.
Great nations, while being anchored in their regions, rise beyond their periphery and don’t make the mistake of internalizing that geography is destiny. India is part of a difficult neighbourhood and there was never a golden era of Indian hegemony in its vicinity.
From the time of its independence, India’s neighbours have tried to balance its preponderance and Pakistan tried its utmost to emerge as an equal to India. While it led to its undoing, other neighbours of India have been better able to navigate the India challenge by reaching out to external powers from time to time.
China’s rise in India’s vicinity is as much about China’s growing economic heft as it is about the desire of Indian’s neighbours to actively court Beijing.
Just as we make the mistake of assuming that the destiny of India’s neighbouring states will be shaped primarily by India, we mistakenly argue that India’s destiny would be decided by its neighbourhood.
India’s continued ascent in the global hierarchy has happened in spite of a challenging neighbourhood and the economic turmoil facing many of India’s neighbours has been despite India’s rise.
While critiquing India’s neighbourhood policy, it is important to acknowledge the agency of its neighbours. New Delhi’s outreach might be a factor, but it is not the only factor that will determine its success or otherwise.
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India should continue to invest in its neighbours’ future with the full awareness that the outcome of that investment is in the hands of its neighbours. And if the past is anything to go by, high returns are going to be unlikely. India’s success, therefore, would lie in escaping the logic of its own geography and emerging as a leading global power.
The author is professor of international relations, King’s College London, and vice president for studies at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
